Population Turnover in Warwickshire

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has recently published figures on population turnover at the local level. The extent to which a population changes over time has implications for a wide variety of themes, such as community cohesion, economic dependency, social isolation and sustainable communities. The figures, produced at Middle-layer Super Output Area (MSOA), provide an indication of the flows in and out of an area over the course of a year (in this case, between July 2009 and June 2010).

Our analysis of the latest figures uncovers some interesting findings…

• A ‘typical’ area has a turnover rate of around 138 per 1,000 population per year.  In other words, at any given point in time, the make-up of the population in an area is 14% different to what it was twelve months previously (not accounting for births and deaths).
• This average hides significant variation at a more local level.  The highest turnover rate for 2009/10 was in Benn, in Rugby. The turnover rate here was 256 per 1,000 population.  In fact, Benn has had the highest population turnover rate in Warwickshire in seven of the last nine years.  In our graphic we examine this in more detail and ask why this might be the case (we’d like hear your thoughts too, please add your comments to this article).
• The highest turnover rates are concentrated in our main towns, particularly Leamington Spa and Rugby, with rural areas appearing to be more settled in nature.  This supports the view that turnover is driven by demographic factors rather than deprivation, with younger families tending to be more concentrated in and around our towns and an older age profile in some of the more rural communities.  The highest eight turnover rates are all in either Leamington Spa or Rugby.
• The trend over the past decade is fairly consistent.  The average turnover rate has remained between 125 and 153 per 1,000 population each year. 
• There are significant differences in turnover rates for different age groups.  The 15 – 24 age group has the highest turnover rates, with an average of 227 per 1,000 and a peak of 452 (in Willes & Clarendon East in Leamington Spa).  This is a consequence of the migrant student population and young adults moving to find work and start careers.  In contrast, those aged 65 or older are much less likely to move, with an average turnover rate of just 52 per 1,000.  The most settled community in Warwickshire between 2009 and 2010 was the 65+ age group in Earl Craven, Wolston & Ryton-on-Dunsmore, with a turnover rate of just 24 per 1,000.  The turnover rate for the 15 – 24 age group is higher than the turnover rate for the 45 – 64 and 65+ age groups in all of our 66 MSOAs.

The graphic we’ve produced provides more detail, and maps turnover rates across the county.  This is a dataset we haven’t examined in great detail previously, but we think it could be useful contextual information for a wide range of themes.  Please let us have your thoughts and tell us if you need more detail on the figures.

…

Mapping the ageing population

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has just released a useful interactive mapping tool to help visualise the changing age profile of the UK.  The tool provides district-level figures and illustrates the trends taking place between 1992 and 2033.

The tool lets you examine a number of things…

• At what age is half the population older and half younger, and in what year
• How does the age profile of each district compare with national trends (you can select individual districts)
• How will specific age groups change over time in each district

For example, the tool helps illustrate that by the year 2030, Stratford-on-Avon District will have less than two residents of working age per person of state retirement age or older, with clear implications for economic dependency rates.  Half the population will be aged over 50 by this time.

We’ve identified the ageing population as one of the key messages in our Quality of Life Report 2011/12, and this tool helps illustrate the same issue in a new way.

View the tool here.

…

Unemployment figures for Warwickshire released today

Jobless figures have been released today by the Office for National Statistics for December 2011. The Job Seekers’ Allowance (JSA) claimant count in December 2011 was 8,274 in Warwickshire; a rate of 2.4% of the resident working age population. This represents a fall of 9 claimants or -0.1% from the previous month.

Unemployment Update – December 2011

Mosaic Profiles – Drug and Alcohol Treatment Needs Assessments

As part of the Drug Treatment and Alcohol Treatment Needs Assessments, (click here for full assessments) the Observatory were commissioned to gain a greater understanding of clients in drug treatment and those admitted to hospital for alcohol-related conditions in the County.

The aim of these reports are to profile alcohol-related hospital admissions and clients in treatment for drug misuse using Mosaic to identify where they are located across the County and what engagement techniques would prove most effective in communicating with these groups in order to provide future advice and guidance on alcohol and drug misuse and raise awareness of the new treatment provider services available in Warwickshire.

Parts of the analysis are included in the full needs assessments but the full Mosaic reports are attached below to download:

Mosaic Analysis of Warwickshire Inpatient Alcohol-related Hospital Admissions

Mosaic Analysis of Drug Treatment Clients in Warwickshire

Warwickshire Drug Treatment and Alcohol Treatment Needs Assessments 2011/12 – Full Assessments Published

The Observatory has been working closely with Warwickshire Drug and Alcohol Action Team (WDAAT) to produce their annual needs assessments for both alcohol treatment and drug treatment. This year was the first time that the Observatory have produced the assessments as WDAAT felt it was important to examine a wider breadth of demographic and socio-economic information, along with the application of a customer insight approach within the analysis.

The needs assessments focus on the current picture of both drug related issues and alcohol related issues in the county including health and crime and disorder. Several surveys were conducted with practitioners and treatment providers and the analysis from this consultation is included within the assessments. Reducing both alcohol and drug related harm is a priority for health and community safety partners in Warwickshire and the findings and recommendations in the assessments with help to inform partners, particularly the Drugs and Alcohol Management Group, and assist with planning for the future.

The assessment also forms part of the Joint Strategic Needs Assessment, the purpose of which is to analyse and examine the current and future health and well-being needs of the local population, to inform and guide the commissioning of health, well-being and social care services.

The full assessments are available here:

Warwickshire Drug Treatment Needs Assessment 2011-12

 Warwickshire Alcohol Treatment Needs Assessment 2011-12

For more information please contact jemmabull@warwickshire.gov.uk.

Quality of Life Report discussed at Warwick District Council’s Executive Committee

The Observatory’s recent Quality of Life in Warwickshire 2011/12 report was discussed this week at Warwick District Council’s Executive Committee, the authority’s main decision making body.  The committee was recommended to use the report to inform the council’s key strategic plans during 2012, including Fit for the Future and the Local Plan, as well as the development of Service Plans across the organisation.

The report explained

The Quality of Life report provides important data about what is changing in our district. As such, it is not only useful in understanding the impact of our strategies, but can also inform the development of future strategy and services. It is intended to review many of the Council’s strategies during 2012 to ensure alignment between the local plan and other strategies. The Quality of Life data provided in this report should be used in these reviews.

The recommendations were agreed and we’re pleased to see the quality of life material embedded within the decision making process of one of our partner organisations.

The Quality of Life report was also covered in this week’s Leamington Observer, with the headline “We’re content, despite falling pay“.  See page five for the full article.

space

Public and Private Sector Employment in Warwickshire

The level of public sector employment has been a focus of attention during the economic downturn and the sector is considered to be particularly vulnerable as the impact of austerity budgeting is felt.  Our graphic presents various measures of how reliant, or not, each of our districts is on the public sector for local employment.  The statistics are taken from new estimates produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) relating to 2010.

There are several ways in which the extent of public sector employment can be measured, depending on whether we are interested in where the jobs are located or where public sector employees reside.  The ONS explains that…

In order to achieve a full understanding of the extent and geographical spread of subregional public sector employment in the UK it is necessary to consider a number of different statistics.   This is because it is necessary to consider the differences between measures of employees and employment and between workplace based measures and residence based measures. Furthermore, there are a number of different comparators against which it is valid to analyse this data.  For example, to allow comparisons across areas, the level of public sector employment can be expressed as a share of total employment or alternatively as a share of (aged 16 to 64 years) population.

Using these various measures, some initial findings for Warwickshire include…

• Across the Coventry & Warwickshire sub-region, 20% of jobs are in the public sector.  This ranges considerably at district level, with the public sector accounting for less than 10% of employment in North Warwickshire but as much as 24% and 23% in Warwick and Nuneaton & Bedworth respectively.
• Comparing the resident working-age population in an area with the number of public sector jobs located there clearly highlights Warwick District as the focus for public sector employment in the county, with 21 public sector employees working in the district for every 100 residents aged 16 to 64 who are resident in the area. The other four districts/boroughs are all below 12% on this measure.
• In contrast, there are 85 private sector employees working in North Warwickshire for every 100 residents aged 16 to 64 who are resident in the borough, reflecting the relatively high level of private sector in-commuting into the area.
• This compares with just 38 private sector employees working in Nuneaton & Bedworth for every 100 residents aged 16 to 64 who are resident in the borough and a national average of 51 per 100.
• Rugby actually appears to be the most dependent of our districts/boroughs on the public sector for employment.  More than 20% of the people living there that have jobs are working in the public sector.  Warwick, unsurprisingly, is not far behind at 20% whereas the comparative rates for both North Warwickshire and Stratford-on-Avon are both below 14%.

See the detailed figures in our graphic, here.

The ONS has also published an interactive map of the dataset here, illustrating the results for all local authority districts in Great Britain.  You can also access the raw data here.

Please share your interpretations of these figures using the comment tool below.

space

Using Mosaic to better understand households in Warwickshire

Better understanding the likely needs of Warwickshire residents in order to develop and deliver more appropriately tailored services has become an increasingly important area of work in recent years. Using a profiling tool such as Mosaic is one way in which local authorities can begin to do this.

Mosaic uses a wide range of data to allocate households into similar groups and types based on likely common characteristics. Using Mosaic it is possible to establish the different needs that Mosaic groups and types may have, identify where specific needs are located and understand each group’s preferred channels of communication.

Warwickshire Observatory have produced a series of Mosaic Group profiles. Each one identifies the volume and location of the specific Mosaic group in Warwickshire, describes its key features and points to some of the likely public sector service needs of that particular group.  Potential applications of Mosaic for local authorities are also highlighted.

 

Key Findings

• Warwickshire is represented in all of the 15 Mosaic Groups, however, the largest group in the county is Group D (Successful professionals living in suburban or semi-rural homes). Group D accounts for 34,680 households in Warwickshire, 14.6% of all households.
• Warwickshire also has sizable volumes of households in Group E (Middle income families living in moderate suburban semis) and Group B (Residents of small and mid-sized towns with strong local roots). Together they account for nearly a quarter of all Warwickshire’s households.
• Group N (Young people renting flats in high density social housing) is the smallest Mosaic Group in Warwickshire, but one that is likely to have a significant dependency on public sector service provision. These ouseholds are relatively concentrated in their distribution with 65% of households located in just 20 Lower Super Output Areas.
• An estimated 70% of Group M households (Elderly people reliant on state support) are likely to be over 70 years old. The group is widely distributed throughout the county but with concentrations in urban areas in the North andRugby.
• Group O (Families in low rise social housing with high levels of benefit need) is relatively small in volume but is likely to contain some of Warwickshire’s most vulnerable households in terms of financial and social support needs. Around two thirds of Group O households are found in just 20 Lower Super Output Areas, mostly in the county’s main towns in the north.

The Observatory is considering holding a seminar to help inform potential users about Mosaic and its applications.  If you would be interested in attending such an event, please email research@warwickshire.gov.uk

Click on the profiles below to view:

Mosaic Group A – Residents of isolated rural communities

Mosaic Group B – Residents of small and mid sized towns with strong roots

Mosaic Group C – Wealthy people living in the most sought after neighbourhoods

Mosaic Group D – Successful professionals living in suburban or semi rural homes

Mosaic Group E – Middle income families living in moderate suburban semis

Mosaic Group F – Couples with young children in comfortable modern housing

Mosaic Group G – Young, well educated city dwellers

Mosaic Group H – Couples and young singles in small modern starter homes

Mosaic Group I – Lower income workers in urban terraces in often diverse areas

Mosaic Group J – Owner occupiers in older-style housing in ex-industrial areas

Mosaic Group K – Residents with sufficient incomes in right-to-buy social houses

Mosaic Group L – Active elderly people living in pleasant retirement locations

Mosaic Group M – Elderly people reliant on state support

Mosaic Group N – Young people renting flats in high density social housing

Mosaic Group O – Families in low-rise social housing with high levels of benefit need

New statistics on fly-tipping in Warwickshire

Last month, Defra published new statistics on the number of fly-tipping incidents recorded across all local authority areas in England and Wales.  The latest figures, covering the year 2010/11, illustrated a 13.5% reduction in the number of incidents recorded nationally.  This may seem like a relatively unusual dataset to comment on through this blog, but the level of fly-tipping taking place across the county is important for two reasons; the cost to local authorities in clearing sites and the psychological impact that fly-tipping can have on communities.  Residents often tell us that an attractive local environment is important to them, and in the most recent Citizens’ Panel ‘clean streets’ was considered to be the fifth most important factor in making somewhere a good place to live, ranked more important than job prospects, public transport and activities for teenagers amongst other things.

Here are some headlines taken from the Warwickshire data on fly-tipping…

• In 2010/11, there were 2,718 fly-tipping incidents in Warwickshire recorded on Defra’s FlyCapture system (the official monitoring system for this dataset)
• This represents an increase of 12.8% on 2009/10, conflicting with the national trend
• However, all of this increase is due to a rise in the number of incidents recorded in Warwick District, which rose from 351 to 955 in 2010/11 and is likely to be a consequence of a change in recording practices
• Elsewhere in the county, figures were down in 2010/11 with each of the other four districts/boroughs recording fewer incidents
• That reflects recent trends more accurately, as prior to 2010/11 incidents had falllen for three consecutive years
• According to the Flycapture system, a total of 311 actions were taken against fly-tippers in 2010/11 in Warwickshire
• More than half of fly-tipping incidents across the county involved household waste (55%)
• The average cost of dealing with a fly-tipping incident, nationally, was £75.  This includes both removal and legal costs.  Applying this average locally means that the county spent more than £200,000 on dealing with fly-tipping in 2010/11.

space

For more information contact the Observatory at research@warwickshire.gov.uk or visit the Defra website.

space

Minerals & Waste Annual Monitoring Report Published

The 2010/11 Minerals & Waste Development Framework (MWDF) Annual Monitoring Report (AMR) for Warwickshire has been published on 30^th December 2011. This report is a statutory document, required by the Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act (2004), and will remain so under the new Localism Act 2010, to monitor how we are progressing with the preparation of the new MWDF and how well the key objectives, currently based on the two original Plans (i.e. Minerals and Waste Local Plans) which have been ‘saved’, are being met.

This Report provides a useful contextual background as well as brings together all the national, regional and local targets and indicators which are relevant to these objectives. It also highlights any problems that our Council would need to take actions to address them. Where in some areas there is inadequate data for monitoring at the county level, these problems are noted and we suggest how they will be addressed in future monitoring reports.

The 2010/11 MWDF AMR can be found using the following link:

http://www.warwickshire.gov.uk/amr