The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has recently published figures on population turnover at the local level. The extent to which a population changes over time has implications for a wide variety of themes, such as community cohesion, economic dependency, social isolation and sustainable communities. The figures, produced at Middle-layer Super Output Area (MSOA), provide an indication of the flows in and out of an area over the course of a year (in this case, between July 2009 and June 2010).
Our analysis of the latest figures uncovers some interesting findings…
- A ‘typical’ area has a turnover rate of around 138 per 1,000 population per year. In other words, at any given point in time, the make-up of the population in an area is 14% different to what it was twelve months previously (not accounting for births and deaths).
- This average hides significant variation at a more local level. The highest turnover rate for 2009/10 was in Benn, in Rugby. The turnover rate here was 256 per 1,000 population. In fact, Benn has had the highest population turnover rate in Warwickshire in seven of the last nine years. In our graphic we examine this in more detail and ask why this might be the case (we’d like hear your thoughts too, please add your comments to this article).
- The highest turnover rates are concentrated in our main towns, particularly Leamington Spa and Rugby, with rural areas appearing to be more settled in nature. This supports the view that turnover is driven by demographic factors rather than deprivation, with younger families tending to be more concentrated in and around our towns and an older age profile in some of the more rural communities. The highest eight turnover rates are all in either Leamington Spa or Rugby.
- The trend over the past decade is fairly consistent. The average turnover rate has remained between 125 and 153 per 1,000 population each year.
- There are significant differences in turnover rates for different age groups. The 15 – 24 age group has the highest turnover rates, with an average of 227 per 1,000 and a peak of 452 (in Willes & Clarendon East in Leamington Spa). This is a consequence of the migrant student population and young adults moving to find work and start careers. In contrast, those aged 65 or older are much less likely to move, with an average turnover rate of just 52 per 1,000. The most settled community in Warwickshire between 2009 and 2010 was the 65+ age group in Earl Craven, Wolston & Ryton-on-Dunsmore, with a turnover rate of just 24 per 1,000. The turnover rate for the 15 – 24 age group is higher than the turnover rate for the 45 – 64 and 65+ age groups in all of our 66 MSOAs.
The graphic we’ve produced provides more detail, and maps turnover rates across the county. This is a dataset we haven’t examined in great detail previously, but we think it could be useful contextual information for a wide range of themes. Please let us have your thoughts and tell us if you need more detail on the figures.