Warwickshire’s population projected to increase to 623,900 people by 2037

The primary purpose of the subnational projections is to provide an estimate of the future size and age structure of the population of local authorities in England. The latest 2012-based projections released by the ONS yesterday suggest Warwickshire is projected to be home to 623,900 people by 2037.  This is a 13.9% increase or 75,900 people in the 25 year period, lower than the equivalent national increase of 16.2%.


How a population is projected to change locally depends on a number of factors that can interact and produce very different growth rates to England as a whole. The size and age structure of the population at mid-2012 is a big indicator of the future population.

Warwickshire’s population as a whole is projected to be more heavily influenced by migration than natural change (births-deaths) into the future and particularly in later years of the projection, internal migration (between local authorities) plays a larger role in influencing the figures.

Some local planning needs are directly relevant to specific age groups and therefore it is important to understand the possible changes to the age structure of an area when planning for the future.

Overall Warwickshire is expected to grow by 13.9% over the 25 year period, however, this mask considerable variation when looking at broad age bands.  The population aged between 0-15 years is expected to grow by 7% in the 25 year period while those aged between 16-64 years is looking at a fall of 0.2%.  Those aged 65 years or over are expected to increase by nearly two thirds (64%) over 25 years and when we consider the population aged 90 years or over, this rises significantly to 269% (over 2 and a half times the current number of 90+ year olds).

Interactive population pyramidsThe ONS projections released yesterday are considerably lower than the previous 2010 and 2011-based projections across the county. This is likely to be due to the fact that the trends used in the 2012-based subnational population projections are based on a historical population series rebased following the 2011 Census while the trends used in the 2011- based subnational population projections are based on an older population series that does not reflect the findings of the 2011 Census. Other reasons include:

  • changes in the population estimate, used as the base year in the projections, between mid-2011 and mid-2012,
  • changes in the trends (births, deaths and migration),
  • changes in assumptions for international migration at a national level

The team will be looking at these estimates in more detail over the coming weeks, however, ONS have produced an interactive tool to look at how the population is changing over time in your area.

To download the data or for more information, visit the ONS webpages.


Is your health worse depending on what job you do? Health Inequalities in Warwickshire, 2011 Census

Health Inequalities InfographicHealth outcomes have been shown to vary markedly between people depending on their socio-economic position based on occupation. Socio-economic position is a good indicator of the general living conditions, access to goods and services, career development prospects, educational attainment, salary range, disposable income, wealth, assets and social standing: Such factors are important drivers of well-being and health.

The infographic presented here looks at  rates of ‘Not Good’ health between groups of people based on their socio-economic class from the 2011 Census. People with different occupations and socio-economic statuses report different levels of health. These differences can be described as the health gap or inequality and can be compared between classes in the same geographical location, between areas and between men and women.

An examination of the rates of ‘Not Good’ health from the 2011 Census show there was a pattern of deteriorating health with increasing disadvantage associated with the socio-economic position of the occupation.

Routine workers in Class 7 had the highest rates of ‘Not Good’ health nationally, regionally and at local authority level for both men and women. Conversely, the most advantaged higher managerial and professional class (Class 1) had the lowest rates of ‘Not Good’ health. Continue reading

New electoral statistics published

The 2013 UK Electoral Statistics were released today by the ONS and show that Warwickshire has nearly 422,230 registered electors (including attainers – those who turn 18 during the year of the register and are therefore entitled to vote in an election on or after their 18th birthday) who are entitled to vote in Local Government and European elections.

The latest Electoral Register came into effect on 1 December 2013 and shows the number of people who were registered to vote in the County and Districts/Boroughs.

ElectorsSource: ONS

The county has experienced a fall in electors over the past twelve months (-0.6%), reflecting both national (-0.3%) and regional falls (-1.7%). However, at District/ Borough level, Rugby and Stratford-on-Avon have seen rises in their electorate population between 2012 and 2013.

The data is also available at Parliamentary Constituency level i.e. those able to vote in Westminster Parliamentary elections.

A factor in the decline in the number of both parliamentary and local government electors recorded between 2012 and 2013 is likely to be changes in administrative practices for including people who have failed to complete the annual voter registration form on the electoral register (known as ‘carried forward’ electors). It is also possible that administrative differences between local authority areas are contributing to the recorded regional variation.

The data can be downloaded from ONS using the following link: http://bit.ly/1fvARs4

The ONS have also produced a statistical bulletin that considers the results released today at a national level.

Achieving Social Inclusion Across Warwick District

Achieving Social Inclusion across Warwick District

Earlier this year,  a steering group convened by Warwick District Council commissioned the Observatory to produce an index to assess the scale and distribution of social exclusion in Warwick District. This evidence base will support the District and other partner agencies in reviewing their approach to improving social inclusion.

With the need to understand the geographical spread of social exclusion issues, our analysis focuses on spatial data.  However, there was also a recognised need to understand where specific themes may require more attention than others; therefore, the analysis is based upon producing a model that describes social exclusion at a local level whilst also identifying overarching themes that require district-wide attention.

The 53 indicators used in the index were grouped into the following 7 themes:

  • Isolation
  • Health and Wellbeing
  • Children and Young People
  • Income and Labour Market
  • Housing and Homes
  • Crime and Community Safety
  • Communities of Interest

The map and table below show the top ten areas that are most socially excluded across Warwick District according to this bespoke index.

Index of Social ExclusionLillington East in Crown ward is the most socially excluded area on the index. It is the worst performing area for two of the seven themes (Income and Labour Market and Children and Young People) and features in the top ten for five of the seven indicators. This area exhibits a wide range of exclusion related issues rather than a handful of problems which exist elsewhere.

Map of social exclusionOne of the benefits of producing the index at a very local level is areas are identified that may have been previously masked when looking at data at a higher level.  This is the case for the two Sydenham areas (ranked 3rd and 4th on the index) which sit within Willes ward. Sydenham North is the worst performing area in the District for two themes (Health & Wellbeing and Communities of Interest) and both areas have a diverse population in terms of the proportion of residents born abroad and ethnicity.

Half of the areas in the top 10 are in Brunswick ward. Stoneleigh is the first rural area to feature on the index as the 8th most socially excluded area in the District.

For more of the key messages and to access the report, please click on the link below:

Warwick District Social Exclusion Index Report

Warwick District Social Exclusion Index Appendices

The steering group have created a short project feedback survey for the Social Inclusion Index work.  Please could you spare a few minutes to let us have your feedback on the work and how you plan to use it by clicking on the link below:


Latest Quarterly Economic Briefing for Warwickshire

Warwickshire's Quarterly Economic BriefingWarwickshire County Council’s Economic Development Team and the Observatory have been working on the latest Quarterly Economic Briefing for April 2014.  The newsletter includes:

  • Local News
  • CSW Broadband Project Update
  • Warwickshire’s Annual Business Survey
  • Feeling the Pinch – Real Wage Trends
  • Procurement Made Easy
  • Budget 2014 Round Up
  • Warwickshire Rural Growth Network
  • Resilience Index
  • Latest Economic Update
  • Strategic Economic Plan
  • Nuneaton Town Centre Scheme
  • Leamington in Top Ten
  • Contact Us

To download the newsletter, please click on the link below:

Warwickshire’s Quarterly Economic Briefing – April 2014

If you’ve got any feedback on the newsletter, both in terms of contact and design, please let us know using the comments box below or by emailing econdev@warwickshire.gov.uk and research@warwickshire.gov.uk

“Living in Warwickshire” survey: First results now available…

Health and Wellbeing Board

Warwickshire’s Health and Wellbeing Board agreed to sponsor a large scale survey of local people which focussed on issues around ‘Living in Warwickshire’, including health and lifestyle issues.

25,000 surveys were sent out and 7,617 completed surveys were returned, which was over 50% higher than our target response rate.

Warwickshire mapSome of the key headline results are as follows:

  • 6% of respondents self-reported that their general health was either poor or very poor.  This is in line with figures from the 2011 Census.  However, only 28% of stated that their health was very good, in contrast to the equivalent figure of 47% from the Census results.
  • Nearly half of people have an alcoholic drink once a week or more, whilst just over 15% are abstainers. Just over one in ten respondents would like to cut down on their current level of drinking.
  • Nearly half of all respondents were either fairly or…

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Unemployment at its lowest levels in Warwickshire since June 2008

UnemploymentThe number of people claiming Job Seekers’ Allowance (JSA) in Warwickshire in December 2013 was 5,878; a rate of 1.7% of the resident working age population and 2.1% of the economically active population. Unemployment has fallen below pre-recession levels, the county now has similar numbers of JSA claimants as it did 5 and a half years ago.

The number of claimants in Warwickshire has fallen by over 220 over the past month (-3.6%).  The graph shows the claimant count for Warwickshire compared with the national average.  Although the county has followed the national trend in terms of falling JSA numbers over the past month, the fall in Warwickshire claimants between November and December 2013 has fallen at double the rate seen at a national level (-1.8%).

DistrictWarwickshire has a lower claimant rate than this time last year with 1,616 fewer claimants recorded in December 2013 (a fall of 21.6%). This year-on-year fall is in line with the national figures (a fall of 21.7%). Within Warwickshire, all Districts/Boroughs saw a fall in claimants over the past year albeit to varying extents. Stratford-on-Avon has seen the largest percentage fall in claimants over the last year (-33.6%) compared to Nuneaton & Bedworth (-10.9%). This graphic chart shows the claimant count unemployment rate for the five Districts/Boroughs in Warwickshire over the past two decades. During this period, the average rate for Nuneaton & Bedworth has been twice that of the average rate in Stratford-on-Avon District. However, since the economic downturn began in 2008 the gap has grown, and the current rate in Nuneaton & Bedworth (3.1%) is nearly four times the rate in Stratford-on-Avon District (0.8%).

AgeThe number of JSA claimants aged 18-24 (youth unemployment) in the county has fallen over the last month.  In December 2013, there were 1,440 claimants aged 18-24 years (3.2% of the resident 18-24 population) whereas in the previous month there were 1,580 claimants aged 18-24 years.  However, looking at the year-on-year figures, the numbers are considerably lower in December 2013 than at the same time the previous year (1,970 claimants or 4.3%).

DurationThere are 2,365 people who are long-term unemployed (claiming JSA for over 6 months) in Warwickshire in December 2013,  representing 2 in 5 job seekers in the county. Long term unemployment accounts for 0.7% of the resident working age population in December 2013. The numbers in long term unemployment has been steadily falling for the past six months with 610 fewer claimants since July 2013.