Warwickshire’s population projected to increase to 623,900 people by 2037

The primary purpose of the subnational projections is to provide an estimate of the future size and age structure of the population of local authorities in England. The latest 2012-based projections released by the ONS yesterday suggest Warwickshire is projected to be home to 623,900 people by 2037.  This is a 13.9% increase or 75,900 people in the 25 year period, lower than the equivalent national increase of 16.2%.


How a population is projected to change locally depends on a number of factors that can interact and produce very different growth rates to England as a whole. The size and age structure of the population at mid-2012 is a big indicator of the future population.

Warwickshire’s population as a whole is projected to be more heavily influenced by migration than natural change (births-deaths) into the future and particularly in later years of the projection, internal migration (between local authorities) plays a larger role in influencing the figures.

Some local planning needs are directly relevant to specific age groups and therefore it is important to understand the possible changes to the age structure of an area when planning for the future.

Overall Warwickshire is expected to grow by 13.9% over the 25 year period, however, this mask considerable variation when looking at broad age bands.  The population aged between 0-15 years is expected to grow by 7% in the 25 year period while those aged between 16-64 years is looking at a fall of 0.2%.  Those aged 65 years or over are expected to increase by nearly two thirds (64%) over 25 years and when we consider the population aged 90 years or over, this rises significantly to 269% (over 2 and a half times the current number of 90+ year olds).

Interactive population pyramidsThe ONS projections released yesterday are considerably lower than the previous 2010 and 2011-based projections across the county. This is likely to be due to the fact that the trends used in the 2012-based subnational population projections are based on a historical population series rebased following the 2011 Census while the trends used in the 2011- based subnational population projections are based on an older population series that does not reflect the findings of the 2011 Census. Other reasons include:

  • changes in the population estimate, used as the base year in the projections, between mid-2011 and mid-2012,
  • changes in the trends (births, deaths and migration),
  • changes in assumptions for international migration at a national level

The team will be looking at these estimates in more detail over the coming weeks, however, ONS have produced an interactive tool to look at how the population is changing over time in your area.

To download the data or for more information, visit the ONS webpages.


Is your health worse depending on what job you do? Health Inequalities in Warwickshire, 2011 Census

Health Inequalities InfographicHealth outcomes have been shown to vary markedly between people depending on their socio-economic position based on occupation. Socio-economic position is a good indicator of the general living conditions, access to goods and services, career development prospects, educational attainment, salary range, disposable income, wealth, assets and social standing: Such factors are important drivers of well-being and health.

The infographic presented here looks at  rates of ‘Not Good’ health between groups of people based on their socio-economic class from the 2011 Census. People with different occupations and socio-economic statuses report different levels of health. These differences can be described as the health gap or inequality and can be compared between classes in the same geographical location, between areas and between men and women.

An examination of the rates of ‘Not Good’ health from the 2011 Census show there was a pattern of deteriorating health with increasing disadvantage associated with the socio-economic position of the occupation.

Routine workers in Class 7 had the highest rates of ‘Not Good’ health nationally, regionally and at local authority level for both men and women. Conversely, the most advantaged higher managerial and professional class (Class 1) had the lowest rates of ‘Not Good’ health. Continue reading

Achieving Social Inclusion Across Warwick District

Achieving Social Inclusion across Warwick District

Earlier this year,  a steering group convened by Warwick District Council commissioned the Observatory to produce an index to assess the scale and distribution of social exclusion in Warwick District. This evidence base will support the District and other partner agencies in reviewing their approach to improving social inclusion.

With the need to understand the geographical spread of social exclusion issues, our analysis focuses on spatial data.  However, there was also a recognised need to understand where specific themes may require more attention than others; therefore, the analysis is based upon producing a model that describes social exclusion at a local level whilst also identifying overarching themes that require district-wide attention.

The 53 indicators used in the index were grouped into the following 7 themes:

  • Isolation
  • Health and Wellbeing
  • Children and Young People
  • Income and Labour Market
  • Housing and Homes
  • Crime and Community Safety
  • Communities of Interest

The map and table below show the top ten areas that are most socially excluded across Warwick District according to this bespoke index.

Index of Social ExclusionLillington East in Crown ward is the most socially excluded area on the index. It is the worst performing area for two of the seven themes (Income and Labour Market and Children and Young People) and features in the top ten for five of the seven indicators. This area exhibits a wide range of exclusion related issues rather than a handful of problems which exist elsewhere.

Map of social exclusionOne of the benefits of producing the index at a very local level is areas are identified that may have been previously masked when looking at data at a higher level.  This is the case for the two Sydenham areas (ranked 3rd and 4th on the index) which sit within Willes ward. Sydenham North is the worst performing area in the District for two themes (Health & Wellbeing and Communities of Interest) and both areas have a diverse population in terms of the proportion of residents born abroad and ethnicity.

Half of the areas in the top 10 are in Brunswick ward. Stoneleigh is the first rural area to feature on the index as the 8th most socially excluded area in the District.

For more of the key messages and to access the report, please click on the link below:

Warwick District Social Exclusion Index Report

Warwick District Social Exclusion Index Appendices

The steering group have created a short project feedback survey for the Social Inclusion Index work.  Please could you spare a few minutes to let us have your feedback on the work and how you plan to use it by clicking on the link below:


The majority of lone parents work …..and other things the 2011 census tells us about lone parent households in 2011 censusWarwickshire

The 2011 Census revealed that Warwickshire has approximately 14,000 lone parent households with dependent children. This means that around 6.1% of households in Warwickshire are lone parents with dependent children, a figure slightly below the national average of 7.2%. Rates of lone parenting varying slightly around the county with lowest levels recorded in Stratford-on-Avon District (4.9%) and the highest in Nuneaton and Bedworth Borough (7.5%)

At the time of the 2011 Census just over 9 in every 10 lone parent households are headed by a woman. Men are lone parents in around 1,500 households in Warwickshire.

The majority (67%) of lone parents are in employment in Warwickshire either part or full-time. This means that around 1 in 3 lone parents are not in employment. Male lone parents were more likely to be in employment and work full-time. However, the data suggests that male lone parents are more likely to be lone parents of older children than women; 57% of male lone parents (compared with 43% of women) have a youngest child aged ten or over and therefore issues relating to childcare may be less prevalent.

Lone parents and number and age of children
Lone parent families tend to have fewer children when compared to all households with dependent children as the table below indicates.

LP no of children

In addition, the children of lone parents tend to be slightly older than in households generally with dependent children. In 45% of lone parent households the youngest child is aged 10 or over compared with 39% of all households with dependent children.

LP age of children

More private renting of homes among lone parent households
Differences in tenure arrangements between lone parent households and those where there are couples with dependent children are highlighted in the table below along with a comparison with all household types.

tenure and lone parents

Lone parent households are much less likely to own their home with a mortgage compared with households where there are couples with dependent children; 30% of lone parents households own their home with a mortgage compared with 67% of households where there are couples with dependent children. Conversely, lone parents are more likely to be renting their homes either socially or privately when compared with couple households with dependent children. Three out of every five lone parent households rent their home.

Lone parent households less likely to have access to a car/van
Compared with couple households with dependent children, lone parent households are more likely to be without access to a car. Some 30% of lone parent households report being without access to a car. This compares with just 14% of couple households with dependent children.

The above highlights some of the likely characteristics of lone parent households in Warwickshire and how they may differ from other types of household. In particular, higher levels of private renting among lone parent households and lower levels of car access means that that some lone parent households may be more vulnerable to the vagaries of the private rented market and that access to services requiring a car is more likely to be an issue.

For further information on the 2011 Census or to suggest further topics for analysis please contact Warwickshire Observatory at research@warwickshire.gov.uk

Commuters travelling further to work….

A recent release of 2011 Census data is now available looking at the distance travelled and method of transport used by2011 census residents in Warwickshire to get to work. The data sheds light on current travel patterns and can also be used to identify changes in travel patterns since the last census in 2001.

More people are travelling further to work….

The data suggests a general trend towards longer journeys to work. The number of people making journeys over 30km increased by some 30% from 18,950 in 2001 to 24,605 in 2011. 

Stratford-on-Avon remains the district with the highest proportion and number of commuters travelling over 30km to work. The district did not record any proportional increase in commuters travelling this distance but in absolute terms almost 7000 people (up 850 people on 2001) now report travelling over 30km to work on a regular basis.

Number of commuters travelling over 30km to work 2001 – 2011

travel pic

Source: 2011 Census


Rugby and Warwick District have seen the biggest proportional increases in the number of people making regular commutes of over 30 km. Rugby District saw a rise of almost 50% in the number of people making journeys over 30km; just over 5,000 workers in 2011 record routinely travelling over 30km. In Warwick, there has been a 37% rise in the number people now travelling over 30km, translating into around 5,500 people regularly travelling this distance.

At the other end of the journey spectrum, the proportion of people making journeys of less than 2km went down from 20% in 2001 to 16% in 2011.

Car is most popular mode of travel for journeys under 2 kilometers….

Also of interest in the newly available census data is the method of transport data set which gives information on how people travel to work.

In Warwickshire, 65% of regular commuter journeys are done by car. This rises to 88% for journeys between 20-30km. Almost 20% of journeys over 60km are by train.

Overall, 2% of all work journeys are by bicycle rising to 6% of journeys less than 2km. The following table shows how people travel to work in Warwickshire for quite short journeys of less than 2km.

mode table


*May not sum due to rounding

Source: 2011 Census, 2014

The interesting feature of the data is that even with the shortest commuter distances, the single largest mode of travel is by car; 43% of journeys of less than 2km are done so by car. This is significant because these journeys are likely to be the most likely to offer potential for switching to other more sustainable modes of travel.

The above highlights some of the newly available 2011 census data on the topic of travel to work. This data is available from the Nomis website and can be cross referenced with other census variables like age, sex, occupation and industry.

For further information on 2011 Census data or suggest further topics for analysis, please contact the Observatory at research@warwickshire.gov.uk.


















Country of Birth – A focus on residents born in an EU Accession Country

This article focuses on data from the Census on the country that Warwickshire residents were born in. In particular, the number and proportion of residents that were born in an EU Accession country e.g. Poland, Romania, Lithuania.

Of Warwickshire residents, 8,880 advise that they were born in an EU Accession country, which is 2% of the total population. Of these residents the highest proportion are identified as being born in Poland (67%), with a further 4% born in Romania, 2% in Lithuania and 27% as ‘Other EU Accession Country’. This category includes Bulgaria, Latvia, Estonia, Slovenia and Slovakia.

Rugby Map

The highest number of people born in an EU Accession country reside in Rugby Borough (3,451 people). The following graphic shows the concentration of where these people live and also reveals some key facts.

  • 3,451 Rugby residents were born in an EU Accession country and 68% were born in Poland (2,344 residents).
  • Almost half (48%) of Rugby residents that were born in an EU Accession country (1,666 residents) were aged 25 to 34 years at the time of the Census.

For further information about the 2011 Census, or if you have any comments or suggestions for further areas of work, please contact the Observatory at research@warwickshire.gov.uk.

Proficiency in English

Proficiency in EnglishThe 2011 Census asked residents if English was the main language spoken by the individual, and if not, what their main language was. The infographic presented here provides more details on what main languages are spoken in Warwickshire, where these residents live within the county, and how Warwickshire compares with elsewhere.

The results show that nearly 23,000 residents of Warwickshire (4.3% of the population) do not have English as their main language. However most of these residents state that they still speak English either ‘very well’ or ‘well’. Within Warwickshire, Rugby Borough and Warwick District have the highest numbers of residents who speak English ‘not very well’ or ‘not at all’.

Nationally, 7.7% of residents in England and Wales do not have English (or Welsh in Wales) as their main language. Within Warwickshire, the equivalent figure ranges from 6.7% in Rugby Borough to 1.0% in North Warwickshire Borough. Please click on the infographic image to find out more information on this topic.

For further information about the 2011 Census, or if you have any comments or suggestions for further areas of work, please contact the Observatory at research@warwickshire.gov.uk.