Warwickshire’s population projected to increase to 623,900 people by 2037

The primary purpose of the subnational projections is to provide an estimate of the future size and age structure of the population of local authorities in England. The latest 2012-based projections released by the ONS yesterday suggest Warwickshire is projected to be home to 623,900 people by 2037.  This is a 13.9% increase or 75,900 people in the 25 year period, lower than the equivalent national increase of 16.2%.

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How a population is projected to change locally depends on a number of factors that can interact and produce very different growth rates to England as a whole. The size and age structure of the population at mid-2012 is a big indicator of the future population.

Warwickshire’s population as a whole is projected to be more heavily influenced by migration than natural change (births-deaths) into the future and particularly in later years of the projection, internal migration (between local authorities) plays a larger role in influencing the figures.

Some local planning needs are directly relevant to specific age groups and therefore it is important to understand the possible changes to the age structure of an area when planning for the future.

Overall Warwickshire is expected to grow by 13.9% over the 25 year period, however, this mask considerable variation when looking at broad age bands.  The population aged between 0-15 years is expected to grow by 7% in the 25 year period while those aged between 16-64 years is looking at a fall of 0.2%.  Those aged 65 years or over are expected to increase by nearly two thirds (64%) over 25 years and when we consider the population aged 90 years or over, this rises significantly to 269% (over 2 and a half times the current number of 90+ year olds).

Interactive population pyramidsThe ONS projections released yesterday are considerably lower than the previous 2010 and 2011-based projections across the county. This is likely to be due to the fact that the trends used in the 2012-based subnational population projections are based on a historical population series rebased following the 2011 Census while the trends used in the 2011- based subnational population projections are based on an older population series that does not reflect the findings of the 2011 Census. Other reasons include:

  • changes in the population estimate, used as the base year in the projections, between mid-2011 and mid-2012,
  • changes in the trends (births, deaths and migration),
  • changes in assumptions for international migration at a national level

The team will be looking at these estimates in more detail over the coming weeks, however, ONS have produced an interactive tool to look at how the population is changing over time in your area.

To download the data or for more information, visit the ONS webpages.

 

In the news – Warwickshire’s Quality of Life 2013/14 report

Quality-of-Life-Logo

Following the publication of Warwickshire’s Quality of Life report earlier this week, find out more information on the report by watching the following video:

Also the report featured on BBC Coventry & Warwickshire’s Breakfast Show on Thursday 7th November.  Three of WCC’s Members, Cllr Cockburn, Cllr Tandy and Cllr Gifford also discussed how the report would impact on the political landscape and influence decisions made across the county.

If you want to listen to the breakfast show, it’s available on BBC Coventry & Warwickshire’s website.

(Andy Davis, the Warwickshire Observatory’s manager talks about the report around 5 minutes 40 seconds and WCC’s three elected Members discuss some of the issues raised at around 1 hour 7 minutes)

Alternatively, listen to the below Audioboo which focuses on Andy discussing the report:

 

Quality of Life in Warwickshire 2013/14 report published

Quality of Life

Today the team is publishing our annual Quality of Life in Warwickshire report, which provides a detailed look at the people, places and communities in our county. The report is an assessment of the demographic, social, economic and environmental themes that all play a part in influencing our residents’ quality of life.

The need for this type of material is more important than ever, as increasingly limited resources need to be deployed in transparent, evidence-led ways. The Quality of Life in Warwickshire report continues to provide local decision makers in the public, private, and voluntary sectors with that evidence base so that improving the lives of all of Warwickshire’s residents remains our collective priority.

New in this year’s report is the inclusion of 2011 Census data across a number of the themes, resulting in several new indicators. Our 2011 Census prospectus gives further details of the team’s work in this area.

As in previous reports, we’ve started each section with a ‘data visualisation’, designed to stimulate your interest and make the statistics more engaging. We’ve also continued with the Interactive Maps in this year’s report. This provides users with a tool for viewing and analysing many of the datasets included in the report at a very local level.

To find out more please click on the link below to download the report:

Quality of Life in Warwickshire 2013/14 report (6.8 MB)

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The State of Stratford-on-Avon: Presentation to the Local Strategic Partnership

This morning, the Observatory gave a ‘State of the District’ presentation to the Stratford-on-Avon Local Strategic Partnership.  The presentation, put together with Stratford-on-Avon District Council, provided an overview of some of the key demographic, social and economic drivers affecting the district.

While emphasising that in broad terms the district continues to be an extremely desirable place to live and work, the presentation identified a series of issues that local partners might want to prioritise for attention over the next few years. It highlighted the pressures facing an ageing population, the mismatch between job vacancy types and the occupations jobseekers are looking for, housing affordability for the low paid and the extent of relative inequality that exists in certain parts of the district.

The presentation was followed by a number of workshops where partners were asked to identify future priorities for the district.

The slides can be viewed below, or for a pdf version containing the speaker notes please click here.


For more information on the material presented contact Spencer Payne at the Observatory (spencerpayne@warwickshire.gov.uk).  For more details on the work of the LSP, visit their website or contact Jenny Murray (jennymurray@warwickshire.gov.uk).

Quality of Life in Warwickshire 2012/13 Annual Report Published…..

Today Warwickshire Observatory publishes the annual Quality of Life report which provides a detailed look at the people, places and communities in our county. The report is an assessment of the demographic, social, economic and environmental themes that all play a part in influencing our residents’ quality of life.  Some of the issues are easier to influence than others, but the purpose of the report is to provide decision makers with the analysis they need to make more informed choices, and to give all staff in the council a better understanding of the communities that we serve in Warwickshire.

We are always looking at ways to improve the Quality of Life Report and the main innovation this year has been to provide a tool to view and analyse many of the datasets included in the report at a very local level. Throughout the report, you will see the ‘Interactive Map’ icon,  which allows you to examine local data on particular themes through our Instant Atlas tool. This feature also allows downloading of the raw data for each indicator so that you can carry out your own analysis, should you wish to.

This year we have seen some interesting changes, for example where trends may now have reached a turning point and are starting to shift, and where there is little evidence to suggest that inequalities are shrinking.

To find out more please click on the link below to be taken to the report.

2012-13 Quality of Life Report

Any feedback you have can be made through the comments section of our Blog or via Twitter (@WarksObs).

Briefing Note – Quality of Life Feedback 2011/12

We have compiled a briefing note highlighting the feedback received on the Quality of Life 2011/12 document.

The overall satisfaction of the 2011/12 report was 98%, where respondents were either very satisfied or fairly satisfied. The highest areas of satisfaction for respondents were around the design and presentation of the report (98%) and the structure (98%).

A link to the briefing note can be found below…..

Briefing Note – Quality of Life Feedback 2011-12

Student Summer 2012 Placement

An exciting opportunity has arisen for a student to come and work within the Observatory for four to six weeks over the summer (June/July). 

The student will need to be studying in a related discipline (statistics, economics, geography etc.), be highly numerate and willing to work across a range of projects within our team. The main focus for the placement will be working on our high profile ‘Quality of Life in Warwickshire’ report that our team produces annually. In return, the student will gain an insight into working in public sector research and will gain some excellent experience for their CV.

A link to the full details of the placement is below…..

Warwickshire Observatory – Student Placement _Summer 2012_