Warwickshire’s population projected to increase to 623,900 people by 2037

The primary purpose of the subnational projections is to provide an estimate of the future size and age structure of the population of local authorities in England. The latest 2012-based projections released by the ONS yesterday suggest Warwickshire is projected to be home to 623,900 people by 2037.  This is a 13.9% increase or 75,900 people in the 25 year period, lower than the equivalent national increase of 16.2%.


How a population is projected to change locally depends on a number of factors that can interact and produce very different growth rates to England as a whole. The size and age structure of the population at mid-2012 is a big indicator of the future population.

Warwickshire’s population as a whole is projected to be more heavily influenced by migration than natural change (births-deaths) into the future and particularly in later years of the projection, internal migration (between local authorities) plays a larger role in influencing the figures.

Some local planning needs are directly relevant to specific age groups and therefore it is important to understand the possible changes to the age structure of an area when planning for the future.

Overall Warwickshire is expected to grow by 13.9% over the 25 year period, however, this mask considerable variation when looking at broad age bands.  The population aged between 0-15 years is expected to grow by 7% in the 25 year period while those aged between 16-64 years is looking at a fall of 0.2%.  Those aged 65 years or over are expected to increase by nearly two thirds (64%) over 25 years and when we consider the population aged 90 years or over, this rises significantly to 269% (over 2 and a half times the current number of 90+ year olds).

Interactive population pyramidsThe ONS projections released yesterday are considerably lower than the previous 2010 and 2011-based projections across the county. This is likely to be due to the fact that the trends used in the 2012-based subnational population projections are based on a historical population series rebased following the 2011 Census while the trends used in the 2011- based subnational population projections are based on an older population series that does not reflect the findings of the 2011 Census. Other reasons include:

  • changes in the population estimate, used as the base year in the projections, between mid-2011 and mid-2012,
  • changes in the trends (births, deaths and migration),
  • changes in assumptions for international migration at a national level

The team will be looking at these estimates in more detail over the coming weeks, however, ONS have produced an interactive tool to look at how the population is changing over time in your area.

To download the data or for more information, visit the ONS webpages.


Quality of Life in Warwickshire 2013/14 report published

Quality of Life

Today the team is publishing our annual Quality of Life in Warwickshire report, which provides a detailed look at the people, places and communities in our county. The report is an assessment of the demographic, social, economic and environmental themes that all play a part in influencing our residents’ quality of life.

The need for this type of material is more important than ever, as increasingly limited resources need to be deployed in transparent, evidence-led ways. The Quality of Life in Warwickshire report continues to provide local decision makers in the public, private, and voluntary sectors with that evidence base so that improving the lives of all of Warwickshire’s residents remains our collective priority.

New in this year’s report is the inclusion of 2011 Census data across a number of the themes, resulting in several new indicators. Our 2011 Census prospectus gives further details of the team’s work in this area.

As in previous reports, we’ve started each section with a ‘data visualisation’, designed to stimulate your interest and make the statistics more engaging. We’ve also continued with the Interactive Maps in this year’s report. This provides users with a tool for viewing and analysing many of the datasets included in the report at a very local level.

To find out more please click on the link below to download the report:

Quality of Life in Warwickshire 2013/14 report (6.8 MB)

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Quality of Life in Warwickshire 2012/13 Annual Report Published…..

Today Warwickshire Observatory publishes the annual Quality of Life report which provides a detailed look at the people, places and communities in our county. The report is an assessment of the demographic, social, economic and environmental themes that all play a part in influencing our residents’ quality of life.  Some of the issues are easier to influence than others, but the purpose of the report is to provide decision makers with the analysis they need to make more informed choices, and to give all staff in the council a better understanding of the communities that we serve in Warwickshire.

We are always looking at ways to improve the Quality of Life Report and the main innovation this year has been to provide a tool to view and analyse many of the datasets included in the report at a very local level. Throughout the report, you will see the ‘Interactive Map’ icon,  which allows you to examine local data on particular themes through our Instant Atlas tool. This feature also allows downloading of the raw data for each indicator so that you can carry out your own analysis, should you wish to.

This year we have seen some interesting changes, for example where trends may now have reached a turning point and are starting to shift, and where there is little evidence to suggest that inequalities are shrinking.

To find out more please click on the link below to be taken to the report.

2012-13 Quality of Life Report

Any feedback you have can be made through the comments section of our Blog or via Twitter (@WarksObs).

Childhood Obesity in Warwickshire

As reported in our recent newsletter, the Warwickshire Observatory is working with colleagues in Public Health to collect data for the National Child Measurement Programme (NCMP).  The NCMP is part of a national effort to improve children’s health and wellbeing and, every year, children in Reception and Year 6 are weighed and measured.  These measurements are used to calculate Body Mass Index (BMI) scores, which in turn are used to generate age and sex specific centiles for each child.

For general monitoring purposes, overweight is defined as a BMI greater than or equal to the 85th centile but less than the 95th centile (i.e. overweight but not obese); obese is defined as a BMI greater than or equal to the 95th centile. Our graphic explains that a slightly different set of thresholds are used in a clinical setting.

We will be carrying out detailed analysis of the local data once the 2011/12 collection programme has finished.  In the meantime, we have provided an analysis of recent figures to help provide some background and understand the current scale of childhood obesity. Some key findings include:

  • Obesity levels double between Reception and Year 6.  At Reception age, 7.8% of pupils in Warwickshire are obese.  The comparative figure for Year 6 pupils is 16.2%.  This emphasises the importance of encouraging healthy eating and exercise at the start of school life in order to reduce the risk of obesity in later years.
  • Warwickshire is slightly below the national average in terms of childhood obesity.  Across England as a whole, 19.0% of Year 6 children and 9.4% of Reception children are obese.
  • Obesity rates are relatively consistent year-on-year.  However, we can say that the percentage of Year 6 children that are obese has risen, nationally, during each of the past four years.
  • The national report on the NCMP identifies a number of risk factors associated with childhood obesity including ethnicity, deprivation and urban environments.
  • Local data is currently provided for Middle-level Super Output Areas (MSOA).  There are 66 of these across Warwickshire, with 22 having obesity levels above the national average for Year 6 pupils.  We have mapped the data in our graphic, with local obesity rates ranging between 9% and 25%.  There are some clear clusters of higher obesity rates in the north of the county in particular. 

We will provide further updates on our work in this area throughout the year.  For further information on the NCMP, click here. For information on the National Obesity Observatory, visit: http://www.noo.org.uk/.


Minerals & Waste Annual Monitoring Report Published

The 2010/11 Minerals & Waste Development Framework (MWDF) Annual Monitoring Report (AMR) for Warwickshire has been published on 30th December 2011. This report is a statutory document, required by the Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act (2004), and will remain so under the new Localism Act 2010, to monitor how we are progressing with the preparation of the new MWDF and how well the key objectives, currently based on the two original Plans (i.e. Minerals and Waste Local Plans) which have been ‘saved’, are being met.

This Report provides a useful contextual background as well as brings together all the national, regional and local targets and indicators which are relevant to these objectives. It also highlights any problems that our Council would need to take actions to address them. Where in some areas there is inadequate data for monitoring at the county level, these problems are noted and we suggest how they will be addressed in future monitoring reports.

The 2010/11 MWDF AMR can be found using the following link:


Handy Collection of Housing Data from Shelter’s Website

Shelter, the housing and homelessness charity organisation, has gathered a range of useful housing datasets within each of the following themes: 

  1. Housing Need
  2. Affordability
  3. Supply
  4. Social and Welfare

 A tool providing these datasets can be accessed here.

These data are taken from the relevant government organisations. They are available at district level, if needed, with regional and national comparisons also available. The facility provides a useful summary and is presented in a user-friendly format; we would encourage you to use it as a starting point for housing statistics. 

The Observatory’s Oscar Yau does have some health warnings though…!

Sources: the source is not always obvious and users may not necessarily know where to direct any queries on the data.

Applicability: most of the time publishers just push the data out without giving the users some guidance or warnings for possible wrong use. It should be the duty of any professional bodies to ensure users do not fall into any traps. One example is the data on Housing Starts and Completions under the Supply section.  These statistics are from CLG’s Live Table 253 and the data in this are based on the NHBC and LA Building Control Inspectors P2Q quarterly return.  If you check the completions figures against any local district’s published figures e.g. from their Local Development Framework’s Annual Monitoring Report, you will find that the values in CLG’s Live Table are always lower. The reason is that the P2Q return does not always capture the full amount due to time pressures and other problems. In this instance the P2Q data is only suitable for a quick snapshot at a specific period i.e. the Treasury’s Monetary Policy Committee required the Starts and Completions stats urgently when they’re setting or revising the interest rate because these two are major items in the set of variables used in their model. 

So although this kind of web site is good, the publishers and the government departments who are responsible for the dataset must ensure the process of publishing the data are managed properly and that users should be given clear guidance so as not misuse the figures.

Oscar has spoken!


Mid-2009 population estimates released

On 24th June 2010, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released their annual, local authority level mid-year population estimates for 2009.

According to the 2009 mid-year estimates, the population of the United Kingdom stands at 61.8 million, with 51.8 million living in England.

The total population of Warwickshire is estimated at 535,100 – an increase of 1,900 people (or 0.4%) on the mid-2008 figure of 533,200. This rate of growth falls in line with both the national (0.6% growth) and regional level (0.4% growth).

The Observatory has produced a briefing note on the mid-2009 population estimates which is attached below:

Mid-2009 population estimates briefing note