Warwickshire’s population now at 548,729 people

The Office for National Statistics recently released the latest population estimates for all Local Authorities in the UK.  According to the  Mid-2013 population estimates, Warwickshire’s population now stands at an estimated  548,729 people. This represents an increase of 0.14% or 755 people when compared to figures for Mid-2012. This rate of growth is slightly below that experienced nationally (0.63%). However, as the table below indicates, there has been some variation around the county in terms of population change with some areas gaining population while others have experienced a fall in numbers.

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  • Rugby experienced the highest rate of population growth in the last year, roughly in line with the national average. The Borough gained 622 people between 2012 and 2013. This means that  population growth in Rugby accounted for just over 80% of Warwickshire’s population growth as a whole.
  • Nuneaton and Bedworth and Stratford-on-Avon also gained population (around 200 people each) but at rates below the national average.
  • Both North Warwickshire and Warwick District experienced falls in their population.

Population change happens because of a combination of births, deaths and migration (both internal and international) flows. Overall in Warwickshire, natural change (births minus deaths) has been the driving factor in population growth between 2012 and 2013; the county experienced net outflows in its population due to migration. However, there is again variation around the county.

  • Although in North Warwickshire births exceeded deaths in the last year, the population fell because of net out- migration from of the borough.
  • Nuneaton and Bedworth’s growth in population can largely be explained by natural change; births exceeding deaths. It experienced net out-migration between 2012-2013.
  • Rugby, which experienced the highest levels of population growth, did so because of a combination of births exceeding deaths and net in-migration both internal and international.
  • Stratford-on-Avon was the only district to see deaths exceed births, largely due to its older population structure. Population growth here is therefore accounted for by net in-migration.
  • Births exceeded deaths in Warwick District but the population still fell because of net out-migration of residents in the district.

The full Mid-2013 population data set is available from the ONS webpages.  Additionally, a summary of the expected growth in Warwickshire’s population into the future can be found here.

 

Crime in Rural Areas of Warwickshire

Rural Crime Pic

Crime in rural areas in Warwickshire has been analysed in an attempt to understand what crime in a rural area is and whether certain crime types are increasing or reducing in these rural areas, and what is being done to tackle it.

The report examines rural locations in Warwickshire by output area only. Rural locations account for 75% of North Warwickshire Borough, 0% of Nuneaton and Bedworth Borough, 25% of Rugby Borough, 13% of Warwick District and 77% of Stratford District. Overall, one third of Warwickshire is classified as rural.

There has been an overall reduction of crime in a rural area in Warwickshire of 3% when comparing March 2013 to April 2014 to the same period in 2012/13.

To read the full report, please click on the graphic.

Warwickshire Police and Crime Plan and Community Safety Agreement 2014 – 2017

 

The ObseFront Cover CSAv2rvatory have contributed and helped to produce the new aligned Warwickshire Police and Crime Plan and Community Safety Agreement.

It is believed it is the first of its kind in the country! The document shows how Warwickshire agencies will work together to tackle crime and improve community safety.

 

Find the full report here…..

Aligned Warwickshire Police and Crime Plan and Community Safety Agreement

 

Conducting Research on the Care Leavers Project for Digital By Default

dbd-research (1)This week saw the start of the research element of the Care Leavers Project as part of the Digital by Default programme. This project is looking at how we currently provide support services to Care Leavers, and how we might use digital technologies to improve outcomes for Care Leavers. Over the next three weeks, members of the project team will be spending time with care leavers who have agreed to talk to us and allow us to gather our “user needs”. We are spending approximately 6 hours with each care leaver, seeing how they go about their daily lives, and asking questions about the Care Leavers Service. We want to understand how activities, technology and appropriate support and services can improve future outcomes for Care Leavers.

The first visit took place on Tuesday, with one of the project team from the Observatory spending the day with a care leaver who is a young mother. She used to live with a foster carer in Warwickshire, but now living independantly in a city centre. The day was spent both at their home and shopping with the children, her friend and boyfriend. During this time many questions were asked about how and why she does things, her experience of life and the care services and various topics were covered such as communication, aspirations and attitudes. As you can imagine, spending the day with a young person is a daunting task, especially living in a social deprived area, when it is at times surrounded by gangs.

“The experience was extremely rewarding – yes the area was everything that you would expect but I felt fully protected by the people that I was with when shown around the local area. The care leaver spent the day answering my questions, taking me through a typical day that she would experience, taking me shopping to her local supermarkets (alongside her friend and baby).

I noticed a few interesting things throughout my time with them:

– the planning around shopping at a number of different supermarkets in order to get items at the lowest prices e.g. Aldi for nappies, main shop at Tesco (for value products primarily), Iceland for all frozen food. But no fruit or vegetables! All food was convenience food and easy to cook e.g. beans, pizzas, instant noodles.

– Using top ups to manage her mobile phone – only spending £10 per month getting unlimited internet but typically running out of text messages. She hadn’t purchased her phone from a typical provider but from Cash Generator and her friend agreed this was the cheapest way to get a phone.

– Buying the majority of clothes and some household items from ebay and Gumtree – sometimes getting items for free if they would collect. All of the clothes for the children they buy in bundles on these websites for very small amounts of money.

– Attitudes towards others were very broad e.g. “social workers are all the same”. She had branded everyone with one view based upon experiences with just a couple of people. She had a very similar view towards her neighbours and local people.

– Ability to manage money – as money is tight every penny counts!

– A desperate need to not repeat the life she had for her children. She was trying to seek advice on how to get out to work and have a career that she wanted but felt she was not getting the support to do this.”

 

The entire experience has been fascinating and a real eye opener for the project team. Pre-conceptions that the team had before they conducted the research are being challenged by many of the people that they are meeting. It is already proving to be a very valuable method of conducting research and engaging with young people that access our services. It has already highlighted ways and methods that we can engage better with care leavers and will ultimately help identify ways that we can help them access services in the future.
This is the first post of many by the project team but hopefully it gives an insight into the very useful research that we are conducting.

Warwickshire’s population projected to increase to 623,900 people by 2037

The primary purpose of the subnational projections is to provide an estimate of the future size and age structure of the population of local authorities in England. The latest 2012-based projections released by the ONS yesterday suggest Warwickshire is projected to be home to 623,900 people by 2037.  This is a 13.9% increase or 75,900 people in the 25 year period, lower than the equivalent national increase of 16.2%.

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How a population is projected to change locally depends on a number of factors that can interact and produce very different growth rates to England as a whole. The size and age structure of the population at mid-2012 is a big indicator of the future population.

Warwickshire’s population as a whole is projected to be more heavily influenced by migration than natural change (births-deaths) into the future and particularly in later years of the projection, internal migration (between local authorities) plays a larger role in influencing the figures.

Some local planning needs are directly relevant to specific age groups and therefore it is important to understand the possible changes to the age structure of an area when planning for the future.

Overall Warwickshire is expected to grow by 13.9% over the 25 year period, however, this mask considerable variation when looking at broad age bands.  The population aged between 0-15 years is expected to grow by 7% in the 25 year period while those aged between 16-64 years is looking at a fall of 0.2%.  Those aged 65 years or over are expected to increase by nearly two thirds (64%) over 25 years and when we consider the population aged 90 years or over, this rises significantly to 269% (over 2 and a half times the current number of 90+ year olds).

Interactive population pyramidsThe ONS projections released yesterday are considerably lower than the previous 2010 and 2011-based projections across the county. This is likely to be due to the fact that the trends used in the 2012-based subnational population projections are based on a historical population series rebased following the 2011 Census while the trends used in the 2011- based subnational population projections are based on an older population series that does not reflect the findings of the 2011 Census. Other reasons include:

  • changes in the population estimate, used as the base year in the projections, between mid-2011 and mid-2012,
  • changes in the trends (births, deaths and migration),
  • changes in assumptions for international migration at a national level

The team will be looking at these estimates in more detail over the coming weeks, however, ONS have produced an interactive tool to look at how the population is changing over time in your area.

To download the data or for more information, visit the ONS webpages.

 

Warwickshire Key Statistics – Victims of Crime

A report of Warwickshire Key Statistics – Victims of Crime has been produced for the Office of the Police CriFront Cover for blogme
Commissioner. The report examines Warwickshire victim data for the period of 1st April 2013 to 31st March 2014 which includes key findings from an analysis of Warwickshire Police and various victim support based agencies’ data.

The report provides an analysis by:

  • District and borough
  • Gender
  • Ethnicity
  • Crime type
  • Age

along with a typical victim profile for each district and borough in Warwickshire as shown below.
Victim Profiles

 

To read the full report, please click on the picture above. 

 

 

Is your health worse depending on what job you do? Health Inequalities in Warwickshire, 2011 Census

Health Inequalities InfographicHealth outcomes have been shown to vary markedly between people depending on their socio-economic position based on occupation. Socio-economic position is a good indicator of the general living conditions, access to goods and services, career development prospects, educational attainment, salary range, disposable income, wealth, assets and social standing: Such factors are important drivers of well-being and health.

The infographic presented here looks at  rates of ‘Not Good’ health between groups of people based on their socio-economic class from the 2011 Census. People with different occupations and socio-economic statuses report different levels of health. These differences can be described as the health gap or inequality and can be compared between classes in the same geographical location, between areas and between men and women.

An examination of the rates of ‘Not Good’ health from the 2011 Census show there was a pattern of deteriorating health with increasing disadvantage associated with the socio-economic position of the occupation.

Routine workers in Class 7 had the highest rates of ‘Not Good’ health nationally, regionally and at local authority level for both men and women. Conversely, the most advantaged higher managerial and professional class (Class 1) had the lowest rates of ‘Not Good’ health. Continue reading