Warwickshire’s population now at 548,729 people

The Office for National Statistics recently released the latest population estimates for all Local Authorities in the UK.  According to the  Mid-2013 population estimates, Warwickshire’s population now stands at an estimated  548,729 people. This represents an increase of 0.14% or 755 people when compared to figures for Mid-2012. This rate of growth is slightly below that experienced nationally (0.63%). However, as the table below indicates, there has been some variation around the county in terms of population change with some areas gaining population while others have experienced a fall in numbers.


  • Rugby experienced the highest rate of population growth in the last year, roughly in line with the national average. The Borough gained 622 people between 2012 and 2013. This means that  population growth in Rugby accounted for just over 80% of Warwickshire’s population growth as a whole.
  • Nuneaton and Bedworth and Stratford-on-Avon also gained population (around 200 people each) but at rates below the national average.
  • Both North Warwickshire and Warwick District experienced falls in their population.

Population change happens because of a combination of births, deaths and migration (both internal and international) flows. Overall in Warwickshire, natural change (births minus deaths) has been the driving factor in population growth between 2012 and 2013; the county experienced net outflows in its population due to migration. However, there is again variation around the county.

  • Although in North Warwickshire births exceeded deaths in the last year, the population fell because of net out- migration from of the borough.
  • Nuneaton and Bedworth’s growth in population can largely be explained by natural change; births exceeding deaths. It experienced net out-migration between 2012-2013.
  • Rugby, which experienced the highest levels of population growth, did so because of a combination of births exceeding deaths and net in-migration both internal and international.
  • Stratford-on-Avon was the only district to see deaths exceed births, largely due to its older population structure. Population growth here is therefore accounted for by net in-migration.
  • Births exceeded deaths in Warwick District but the population still fell because of net out-migration of residents in the district.

The full Mid-2013 population data set is available from the ONS webpages.  Additionally, a summary of the expected growth in Warwickshire’s population into the future can be found here.


Warwickshire’s population projected to increase to 623,900 people by 2037

The primary purpose of the subnational projections is to provide an estimate of the future size and age structure of the population of local authorities in England. The latest 2012-based projections released by the ONS yesterday suggest Warwickshire is projected to be home to 623,900 people by 2037.  This is a 13.9% increase or 75,900 people in the 25 year period, lower than the equivalent national increase of 16.2%.


How a population is projected to change locally depends on a number of factors that can interact and produce very different growth rates to England as a whole. The size and age structure of the population at mid-2012 is a big indicator of the future population.

Warwickshire’s population as a whole is projected to be more heavily influenced by migration than natural change (births-deaths) into the future and particularly in later years of the projection, internal migration (between local authorities) plays a larger role in influencing the figures.

Some local planning needs are directly relevant to specific age groups and therefore it is important to understand the possible changes to the age structure of an area when planning for the future.

Overall Warwickshire is expected to grow by 13.9% over the 25 year period, however, this mask considerable variation when looking at broad age bands.  The population aged between 0-15 years is expected to grow by 7% in the 25 year period while those aged between 16-64 years is looking at a fall of 0.2%.  Those aged 65 years or over are expected to increase by nearly two thirds (64%) over 25 years and when we consider the population aged 90 years or over, this rises significantly to 269% (over 2 and a half times the current number of 90+ year olds).

Interactive population pyramidsThe ONS projections released yesterday are considerably lower than the previous 2010 and 2011-based projections across the county. This is likely to be due to the fact that the trends used in the 2012-based subnational population projections are based on a historical population series rebased following the 2011 Census while the trends used in the 2011- based subnational population projections are based on an older population series that does not reflect the findings of the 2011 Census. Other reasons include:

  • changes in the population estimate, used as the base year in the projections, between mid-2011 and mid-2012,
  • changes in the trends (births, deaths and migration),
  • changes in assumptions for international migration at a national level

The team will be looking at these estimates in more detail over the coming weeks, however, ONS have produced an interactive tool to look at how the population is changing over time in your area.

To download the data or for more information, visit the ONS webpages.


Is your health worse depending on what job you do? Health Inequalities in Warwickshire, 2011 Census

Health Inequalities InfographicHealth outcomes have been shown to vary markedly between people depending on their socio-economic position based on occupation. Socio-economic position is a good indicator of the general living conditions, access to goods and services, career development prospects, educational attainment, salary range, disposable income, wealth, assets and social standing: Such factors are important drivers of well-being and health.

The infographic presented here looks at  rates of ‘Not Good’ health between groups of people based on their socio-economic class from the 2011 Census. People with different occupations and socio-economic statuses report different levels of health. These differences can be described as the health gap or inequality and can be compared between classes in the same geographical location, between areas and between men and women.

An examination of the rates of ‘Not Good’ health from the 2011 Census show there was a pattern of deteriorating health with increasing disadvantage associated with the socio-economic position of the occupation.

Routine workers in Class 7 had the highest rates of ‘Not Good’ health nationally, regionally and at local authority level for both men and women. Conversely, the most advantaged higher managerial and professional class (Class 1) had the lowest rates of ‘Not Good’ health. Continue reading

New electoral statistics published

The 2013 UK Electoral Statistics were released today by the ONS and show that Warwickshire has nearly 422,230 registered electors (including attainers – those who turn 18 during the year of the register and are therefore entitled to vote in an election on or after their 18th birthday) who are entitled to vote in Local Government and European elections.

The latest Electoral Register came into effect on 1 December 2013 and shows the number of people who were registered to vote in the County and Districts/Boroughs.

ElectorsSource: ONS

The county has experienced a fall in electors over the past twelve months (-0.6%), reflecting both national (-0.3%) and regional falls (-1.7%). However, at District/ Borough level, Rugby and Stratford-on-Avon have seen rises in their electorate population between 2012 and 2013.

The data is also available at Parliamentary Constituency level i.e. those able to vote in Westminster Parliamentary elections.

A factor in the decline in the number of both parliamentary and local government electors recorded between 2012 and 2013 is likely to be changes in administrative practices for including people who have failed to complete the annual voter registration form on the electoral register (known as ‘carried forward’ electors). It is also possible that administrative differences between local authority areas are contributing to the recorded regional variation.

The data can be downloaded from ONS using the following link: http://bit.ly/1fvARs4

The ONS have also produced a statistical bulletin that considers the results released today at a national level.

Achieving Social Inclusion Across Warwick District

Achieving Social Inclusion across Warwick District

Earlier this year,  a steering group convened by Warwick District Council commissioned the Observatory to produce an index to assess the scale and distribution of social exclusion in Warwick District. This evidence base will support the District and other partner agencies in reviewing their approach to improving social inclusion.

With the need to understand the geographical spread of social exclusion issues, our analysis focuses on spatial data.  However, there was also a recognised need to understand where specific themes may require more attention than others; therefore, the analysis is based upon producing a model that describes social exclusion at a local level whilst also identifying overarching themes that require district-wide attention.

The 53 indicators used in the index were grouped into the following 7 themes:

  • Isolation
  • Health and Wellbeing
  • Children and Young People
  • Income and Labour Market
  • Housing and Homes
  • Crime and Community Safety
  • Communities of Interest

The map and table below show the top ten areas that are most socially excluded across Warwick District according to this bespoke index.

Index of Social ExclusionLillington East in Crown ward is the most socially excluded area on the index. It is the worst performing area for two of the seven themes (Income and Labour Market and Children and Young People) and features in the top ten for five of the seven indicators. This area exhibits a wide range of exclusion related issues rather than a handful of problems which exist elsewhere.

Map of social exclusionOne of the benefits of producing the index at a very local level is areas are identified that may have been previously masked when looking at data at a higher level.  This is the case for the two Sydenham areas (ranked 3rd and 4th on the index) which sit within Willes ward. Sydenham North is the worst performing area in the District for two themes (Health & Wellbeing and Communities of Interest) and both areas have a diverse population in terms of the proportion of residents born abroad and ethnicity.

Half of the areas in the top 10 are in Brunswick ward. Stoneleigh is the first rural area to feature on the index as the 8th most socially excluded area in the District.

For more of the key messages and to access the report, please click on the link below:

Warwick District Social Exclusion Index Report

Warwick District Social Exclusion Index Appendices

The steering group have created a short project feedback survey for the Social Inclusion Index work.  Please could you spare a few minutes to let us have your feedback on the work and how you plan to use it by clicking on the link below:


Life expectancy at birth and at age 65 by local areas in the UK, 2006-08 to 2010-12

Life expectancy at birth and at age 65 by local areas in the UK, 2006-08 to 2010-12The Office for National Statistics (ONS) have published male and female period life expectancy at birth and at age 65 for the United Kingdom and local areas within the four constituent countries. Figures are presented for the period 2010–12, with those for the periods 2006–08 to 2009–11 for comparison purposes.

Period life expectancy at a given age for an area is the average number of years a person would live, if he or she experienced the particular area’s age-specific mortality rates for that time period throughout his or her life.

Life expectancy at birth has been used as a measure of the health status of the population of England and Wales since the 1840’s. It was employed in some of the earliest reports of the Registrar General to illustrate the differences in mortality experienced by populations in different parts of the country.

Life expectancy figures are widely used by local health planners in monitoring health inequalities and in targeting resources to tackle these inequalities in the most effective manner. They also help to inform policy, planning and research by the Department of Health and Public Health England, devolved health administrations, local and unitary authorities, and private pensions and insurance companies.

In England, the Department of Health’s Public Health Outcomes Framework (PHOF), sets out its vision for public health, desired outcomes and the indicators that will help in understanding how well public health is being improved and protected. PHOF uses the difference in life expectancy and healthy life expectancy between communities as one of two high level outcomes for monitoring population health.

Key Facts

  • The inequality in life expectancy at birth and at age 65 between the local areas with the highest and lowest figures decreased for males and females between 2000–02 and 2010–12.
  • The majority of local areas in Scotland (72%) were in the fifth of local areas in the UK with the lowest male and female life expectancy at birth in 2010–12. Conversely, only 15% of local areas in England were in this group.
  • In 2010–12, male life expectancy at birth was highest in East Dorset (82.9 years) and lowest in Glasgow City (72.6 years).
  • For females, life expectancy at birth was highest in Purbeck (86.6 years) and lowest in Glasgow City (78.5 years).
  • Approximately 91% of baby boys in East Dorset and 94% of girls in Purbeck will reach their 65th birthday, if 2010–12 mortality rates persist throughout their lifetime. The comparable figures for Glasgow City are 75% for baby boys and 85% for baby girls.
  • Life expectancy at age 65 was highest for men in Harrow, where they could expect to live for a further 20.9 years compared with only 14.9 years for men in Glasgow City.
  • For women at age 65, life expectancy was highest in Camden (23.8 years) and lowest in Glasgow City (18.3 years).

Key Facts – Warwickshire (2010-12)

  • Male life expectancy at birth was 79.8 years, for females it was 83.8 years.
  • Male life expectancy at age 65 was 18.9 years, for females it was 21.7 years.

Key Facts – Warwickshire Districts & Boroughs (2010-12)

  • Male life expectancy at birth varied from 78.2 years in Nuneaton & Bedworth Borough to 81.0 years in Stratford-on-Avon District. Female life expectancy at birth varied from 82.3 years in North Warwickshire Borough to 84.9 years in Stratford-on-Avon District.
  • Male life expectancy at age 65 varied from 17.6 years in Nuneaton & Bedworth Borough to 19.8 years in Stratford-on-Avon District. Female life expectancy at age 65 varied from 20.3 years in Nuneaton & Bedworth Borough to 22.7 years in Warwick.


The majority of lone parents work …..and other things the 2011 census tells us about lone parent households in 2011 censusWarwickshire

The 2011 Census revealed that Warwickshire has approximately 14,000 lone parent households with dependent children. This means that around 6.1% of households in Warwickshire are lone parents with dependent children, a figure slightly below the national average of 7.2%. Rates of lone parenting varying slightly around the county with lowest levels recorded in Stratford-on-Avon District (4.9%) and the highest in Nuneaton and Bedworth Borough (7.5%)

At the time of the 2011 Census just over 9 in every 10 lone parent households are headed by a woman. Men are lone parents in around 1,500 households in Warwickshire.

The majority (67%) of lone parents are in employment in Warwickshire either part or full-time. This means that around 1 in 3 lone parents are not in employment. Male lone parents were more likely to be in employment and work full-time. However, the data suggests that male lone parents are more likely to be lone parents of older children than women; 57% of male lone parents (compared with 43% of women) have a youngest child aged ten or over and therefore issues relating to childcare may be less prevalent.

Lone parents and number and age of children
Lone parent families tend to have fewer children when compared to all households with dependent children as the table below indicates.

LP no of children

In addition, the children of lone parents tend to be slightly older than in households generally with dependent children. In 45% of lone parent households the youngest child is aged 10 or over compared with 39% of all households with dependent children.

LP age of children

More private renting of homes among lone parent households
Differences in tenure arrangements between lone parent households and those where there are couples with dependent children are highlighted in the table below along with a comparison with all household types.

tenure and lone parents

Lone parent households are much less likely to own their home with a mortgage compared with households where there are couples with dependent children; 30% of lone parents households own their home with a mortgage compared with 67% of households where there are couples with dependent children. Conversely, lone parents are more likely to be renting their homes either socially or privately when compared with couple households with dependent children. Three out of every five lone parent households rent their home.

Lone parent households less likely to have access to a car/van
Compared with couple households with dependent children, lone parent households are more likely to be without access to a car. Some 30% of lone parent households report being without access to a car. This compares with just 14% of couple households with dependent children.

The above highlights some of the likely characteristics of lone parent households in Warwickshire and how they may differ from other types of household. In particular, higher levels of private renting among lone parent households and lower levels of car access means that that some lone parent households may be more vulnerable to the vagaries of the private rented market and that access to services requiring a car is more likely to be an issue.

For further information on the 2011 Census or to suggest further topics for analysis please contact Warwickshire Observatory at research@warwickshire.gov.uk