Warwickshire’s population now at 548,729 people

The Office for National Statistics recently released the latest population estimates for all Local Authorities in the UK.  According to the  Mid-2013 population estimates, Warwickshire’s population now stands at an estimated  548,729 people. This represents an increase of 0.14% or 755 people when compared to figures for Mid-2012. This rate of growth is slightly below that experienced nationally (0.63%). However, as the table below indicates, there has been some variation around the county in terms of population change with some areas gaining population while others have experienced a fall in numbers.

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  • Rugby experienced the highest rate of population growth in the last year, roughly in line with the national average. The Borough gained 622 people between 2012 and 2013. This means that  population growth in Rugby accounted for just over 80% of Warwickshire’s population growth as a whole.
  • Nuneaton and Bedworth and Stratford-on-Avon also gained population (around 200 people each) but at rates below the national average.
  • Both North Warwickshire and Warwick District experienced falls in their population.

Population change happens because of a combination of births, deaths and migration (both internal and international) flows. Overall in Warwickshire, natural change (births minus deaths) has been the driving factor in population growth between 2012 and 2013; the county experienced net outflows in its population due to migration. However, there is again variation around the county.

  • Although in North Warwickshire births exceeded deaths in the last year, the population fell because of net out- migration from of the borough.
  • Nuneaton and Bedworth’s growth in population can largely be explained by natural change; births exceeding deaths. It experienced net out-migration between 2012-2013.
  • Rugby, which experienced the highest levels of population growth, did so because of a combination of births exceeding deaths and net in-migration both internal and international.
  • Stratford-on-Avon was the only district to see deaths exceed births, largely due to its older population structure. Population growth here is therefore accounted for by net in-migration.
  • Births exceeded deaths in Warwick District but the population still fell because of net out-migration of residents in the district.

The full Mid-2013 population data set is available from the ONS webpages.  Additionally, a summary of the expected growth in Warwickshire’s population into the future can be found here.

 

Warwickshire’s population projected to increase to 623,900 people by 2037

The primary purpose of the subnational projections is to provide an estimate of the future size and age structure of the population of local authorities in England. The latest 2012-based projections released by the ONS yesterday suggest Warwickshire is projected to be home to 623,900 people by 2037.  This is a 13.9% increase or 75,900 people in the 25 year period, lower than the equivalent national increase of 16.2%.

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How a population is projected to change locally depends on a number of factors that can interact and produce very different growth rates to England as a whole. The size and age structure of the population at mid-2012 is a big indicator of the future population.

Warwickshire’s population as a whole is projected to be more heavily influenced by migration than natural change (births-deaths) into the future and particularly in later years of the projection, internal migration (between local authorities) plays a larger role in influencing the figures.

Some local planning needs are directly relevant to specific age groups and therefore it is important to understand the possible changes to the age structure of an area when planning for the future.

Overall Warwickshire is expected to grow by 13.9% over the 25 year period, however, this mask considerable variation when looking at broad age bands.  The population aged between 0-15 years is expected to grow by 7% in the 25 year period while those aged between 16-64 years is looking at a fall of 0.2%.  Those aged 65 years or over are expected to increase by nearly two thirds (64%) over 25 years and when we consider the population aged 90 years or over, this rises significantly to 269% (over 2 and a half times the current number of 90+ year olds).

Interactive population pyramidsThe ONS projections released yesterday are considerably lower than the previous 2010 and 2011-based projections across the county. This is likely to be due to the fact that the trends used in the 2012-based subnational population projections are based on a historical population series rebased following the 2011 Census while the trends used in the 2011- based subnational population projections are based on an older population series that does not reflect the findings of the 2011 Census. Other reasons include:

  • changes in the population estimate, used as the base year in the projections, between mid-2011 and mid-2012,
  • changes in the trends (births, deaths and migration),
  • changes in assumptions for international migration at a national level

The team will be looking at these estimates in more detail over the coming weeks, however, ONS have produced an interactive tool to look at how the population is changing over time in your area.

To download the data or for more information, visit the ONS webpages.

 

New electoral statistics published

The 2013 UK Electoral Statistics were released today by the ONS and show that Warwickshire has nearly 422,230 registered electors (including attainers – those who turn 18 during the year of the register and are therefore entitled to vote in an election on or after their 18th birthday) who are entitled to vote in Local Government and European elections.

The latest Electoral Register came into effect on 1 December 2013 and shows the number of people who were registered to vote in the County and Districts/Boroughs.

ElectorsSource: ONS

The county has experienced a fall in electors over the past twelve months (-0.6%), reflecting both national (-0.3%) and regional falls (-1.7%). However, at District/ Borough level, Rugby and Stratford-on-Avon have seen rises in their electorate population between 2012 and 2013.

The data is also available at Parliamentary Constituency level i.e. those able to vote in Westminster Parliamentary elections.

A factor in the decline in the number of both parliamentary and local government electors recorded between 2012 and 2013 is likely to be changes in administrative practices for including people who have failed to complete the annual voter registration form on the electoral register (known as ‘carried forward’ electors). It is also possible that administrative differences between local authority areas are contributing to the recorded regional variation.

The data can be downloaded from ONS using the following link: http://bit.ly/1fvARs4

The ONS have also produced a statistical bulletin that considers the results released today at a national level.

Census Profiler Update – Safer Neighbourhood Areas Added

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Due to a number of requests from users, we have made some more adjustments to our excel-based 2011 Census small area profiling tool and added in the geography of Safer Neighbourhood Areas (as well as Children’s Centre areas a few months ago). 

This tool allows you to generate your own 2011 Census profiles bringing together themes such as population, housing, ethnic background, religion, heath, education and employment at a number of different Warwickshire geographies including:

    • ONS geographies: Output Area, Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) and Middle Super Output Area (MSOA)
    • Wards
    • Localities
    • Electoral Divisions
    • Parishes
    • Children’s Centre Areas
    • Safer Neighbourhood Areas
    • District/Boroughs
    • Warwickshire
    • National & West Midlands Region comparators

The updated Census Profiler tool can be accessed using the link below:

2011 Census Small Area Profiler (June 2014)

NB: Please be aware this is a large file so it will take a few minutes to download.

How Warwickshire’s population changes in a workday

The population of an area changes as people move in and out to go to2011 census work. Data from the 2011 Census shows the difference between resident and work day populations for areas in England and Wales.

The work day population is calculated by re-distributing the usually resident population to their recorded places of work, while those not in work are recorded at their usual residence.
Differences between the usually resident and workday populations can illustrate which areas experience net outflows of people during the work day and conversely where people travel into during the work day. ONS have published an interactive mapping tool to check out local areas and see how they change during the work day.

The table below illustrates the change between usually resident and workday populations in districts/boroughs within Warwickshire.

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Across England and Wales, the majority (63%) of local authorities had less than ten per cent difference between their usually resident and workday populations. Warwickshire has two authorities, North Warwickshire and Nuneaton and Bedworth, where differences between usually resident and workday populations exceed ten per cent.

The largest proportional change from usually resident to workday population is in North Warwickshire which sees an eighteen per cent rise in its work day population. An additional 8,300 people are in North Warwickshire on a work day.  North Warwickshire appears in the top twenty local authorities with the greatest percentage gains between the usually resident and workday populations aged 16-74.

In the 2001 Census North Warwickshire had a work day population three per cent smaller than its usually resident population indicating that this change in North Warwickshire’s work day population has emerged in the last ten years. The most likely explanation for this is the expanding automotive manufacturing industry in this area.

Warwick District and Stratford-on-Avon District also experience positive increases in their workday populations albeit proportionally smaller, indicating that lower numbers of residents are travelling out of these authorities for work purposes than the number who travel in. That said, it is important to note that even smaller differences in usually resident and workday population might still involve considerable movement of people but that in and out flows are more balanced; the characteristics of those populations might be quite different even if the volumes are not markedly so.

Two authorities in Warwickshire experience smaller work day populations than their usual number of residents. In particular, Nuneaton and Bedworth experiences a 16.2 % reduction in its usually resident population translating into, at the very least, almost 15,000 people typically travelling outside of the borough for work purposes. These figures are likely to be a reflection of fewer employment opportunities for residents within the borough itself although it does not mean people do not travel into the borough for employment.

As noted above, the characteristics of the usually resident and workday populations may be quite different. For example, the sex ratios of the workday population can vary greatly compared with the resident population. In North Warwickshire, the data indicates that the workday population has a sex ratio of 133 males per 100 females compared to 99 males per hundred females in the usually resident population (ONS, 2013). This feature of the workday population is evident in the population pyramid below; the male side (blue) side of the pyramid shows a marked difference in the workday number of males (light blue) compared with the number of usual resident males (dark blue).This is likely to reflect the largely male dominated automotive  industry in the area.

north warks pyramid

N&Bpyramid1

Conversely, the population pyramid for Nuneaton and Bedworth shows that the  male and female workday populations are smaller than the usually resident population although it is more marked for men than women.

When it comes to age structures the profile of those areas experiencing workday population gains is typically younger than those experiencing workday population losses. The population pyramid for North Warwickshire shows some gains particularly in those aged below 34 in the workday population.  Nuneaton and Bedworth has a slightly older population during the workday.

ONS has published a number of datasets using the workday population base, These are available on the Nomis website and can be used to identify further differences between the usually resident and workday populations.

Further publications by ONS of population ‘flow’ data later this year will illustrate actual movements of populations between destinations giving a much clearer picture of travel to work patterns.

For further information or comments about the Observatory’s analysis of 2011 Census data please contact us on research@warwickshire.gov.uk

 

2011 Census Analysis – Warwickshire’s Ageing Population?

2011 censusBackground

Warwickshire’s population has, in recent years, often been described as ‘growing and ageing’. Much has been made of the implications of this ageing population for public services generally. However, our analysis of 2011 Census data reveals that different ethnic groups*  in the county display some markedly different age structures compared to that of Warwickshire as a whole.

Influenced by a combination of births, deaths and migration patterns, a population pyramid is a useful visual way of looking at the the age structure of different population groups. By creating a population pyramid for a number of ethnic groups in the county we can illustrate the differences in age structure between them and try to explain why they may display different characteristics. Each bar represents the percentage of that ethnic group’s population accounted for by that age and sex.

Males are illustrated in blue on the left of the pyramid while females or in red on the right. 

all pyramids1

The ageing ‘White British’ population….

WarkspyrWarwickshire’s ageing population is largely a consequence of its ageing ‘White British‘ population which make up the majority of the county’s residents. In 2011, around 89% of Warwickshire’s population identified with the ‘White British’ ethnic group category and will thus have most influence on the shape of Warwickshire’s population pyramid.

The ‘White British’ group in Warwickshire has an older age profile than most other ethnic groups in the county with 19% of its population over the age of 65. This is slightly higher than the national average of almost 17%. The wider lines in the population pyramid for people in their sixties and forties reflect the baby boom years following World War Two and again in the 1960s. Warwickshire is expected to be home to increasing numbers of older people in the future; the over 65 and 85 plus age groups grew faster than any other age groups between 2001 and 2011.

Other ageing populations…

White IrishThe ‘upside down’ nature of the ‘White Irish‘ ethnic group pyramid suggest an ageing population and low birth rate. Indeed, the ‘White Irish’ population have the oldest age structure of any ethnic group in Warwickshire. Some 38% of ‘White Irish’ residents in the county are aged over 65 and just 5% of the population are under 15 years old. The 2011 Census indicated that the ‘White Irish’ population was the only ethnic group in Warwickshire to actually decline in numbers. The current ‘White Irish’ pyramid’s shape is likely to be in part a refection of earlier settlement here compared with other ethnic groups and subsequent ageing of that population. There is also some evidence nationally to suggest younger people may not be as likely to retain their parents’ ‘White Irish’ ethnic identity so readily as some other ethnic minority groups and hence younger age groups are under-represented with the population structure.

Indian

Unlike some other ethnic minority groups, the Asian Indian pyramid displays slightly higher proportions of people aged 65 + (8%). This is most likely related to larger scale immigration experienced prior to the 1970s and subsequent ageing of that population.The 2011 Census indicates that over half of the number of people identifying as ‘Indian’ are UK born residents.  So, although in general the ‘Asian Indian’ population is younger than the ‘White British’ population, in the next decade or so they are likely to experience an ageing population akin to the ‘White British’ experience being seen now.

Populations with high numbers of young adults…

white otherHigher proportions of young working age people are a characteristic feature of the ‘Other White‘ population pyramid. Census data indicates that the ‘Other White’ ethnic group population more than doubled in the ten years since 2001. The is most likely explanation for this is the well documented arrival of economic migrants, who tend to be younger working age adults,  from EU Accession countries such as Poland over the last decade. Some natural growth may also be apparent as new arrivals begin families, evidenced by higher numbers of 0-4 year olds. Natural change (more births over deaths)  may well be a stronger feature of population growth for these populations into the future assuming current numbers of young adults remains fairly constant.

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The ‘Asian Chinese‘ population show similar higher numbers of young adults but in the slightly younger ages 15-24 years. One third of Warwickshire’s ‘Asian Chinese’ population is aged between 15 and 24 years. The proportions and numbers increase still further for Warwick District where 45% of the the resident ‘Asian Chinese’ population are aged 15-24 years. One explanation is in-migration to Warwickshire within this age group for study purposes explaining the wider lines in the population pyramid for these age groups.

The youngest populations…..

African

Ethnic groups displaying the youngest populations include the ‘Black African‘ group and all ‘Mixed’ categories including ‘Mixed White and Black Caribbean‘ illustrated below. The broad base of the ‘Mixed White and Black Caribbean’ reflects the very high proportion, just over half, of the population who are aged under 15 years compared with a county average of around 18%. The ‘Black African‘ group also displays a high proportion of under 15 year olds at 25% of the population. Both groups are characterised by very low, almost absent, proportions of older people. Just 3% of the ‘Mixed White and Black Caribbean’ group and 1% of the ‘Black African’ group are aged over 65.

Some ninety six per cent of residents who identified with the ‘mixed black and white Caribbean’ group were born in the UK . Greater integration in the last few decades may help explain higher numbers of children among the ‘Mixed’ categories Mixed1as these children, born in the last ten to twenty years, are likely to be born to parents of different ethnicities.

Between 2001 and 2011 residents identifying as  ‘Black African’ increased from 389 to 2,173 people. Of this number around 20% are UK born residents. It is likely that in-migration has played a part in contributing to population growth for this group.  Additionally, the relatively high numbers of children in the population suggests Warwickshire may have experienced in-migration from families in this ethnic group category. Strong natural change as births exceed deaths in such young population structures are also likely to be part of the picture of population growth for these groups going forward.

The above is a reminder that behind headline trends can be considerable variation. Just as we know there is variation in the headline trend of population growth around the county so too there is variation in the growth and age structure of different groups of people. Moreover, when differences in characteristics are noted between ethnic groups, it may be a function of these different ages structures which is actually being observed.

The different ethnic group populations looked at above will age and grow at different rates based on their current structures and the subsequent interplay of births, deaths and migration patterns. This feature of Warwickshire’s ‘ageing population’ is something about which public sector agencies will need to be aware in future service planning. However, even assumptions about the implications of an ageing population as displayed by Warwickshire ‘s population as a whole have come in for further scrutiny recently as highlighted here. These differences of opinion that abound in relation to the topic of ageing populations simply highlight how tricky it can be to predict with accuracy the likely implications of this well documented process both nationally and locally.

*Collecting data on ethnic group is complex because of the subjective and changing nature of ethnic identification; it is a self-defined concept likely to be influenced by a numbers of factors including common ancestry, culture, identity, religion and language (ONS, 2013). However, it is widely regarded as an important population characteristic used by the public and private sectors to monitor equal opportunities and anti-discriminatory policies and to inform future service provision.

Quality of Life in Warwickshire 2013/14 report published

Quality of Life

Today the team is publishing our annual Quality of Life in Warwickshire report, which provides a detailed look at the people, places and communities in our county. The report is an assessment of the demographic, social, economic and environmental themes that all play a part in influencing our residents’ quality of life.

The need for this type of material is more important than ever, as increasingly limited resources need to be deployed in transparent, evidence-led ways. The Quality of Life in Warwickshire report continues to provide local decision makers in the public, private, and voluntary sectors with that evidence base so that improving the lives of all of Warwickshire’s residents remains our collective priority.

New in this year’s report is the inclusion of 2011 Census data across a number of the themes, resulting in several new indicators. Our 2011 Census prospectus gives further details of the team’s work in this area.

As in previous reports, we’ve started each section with a ‘data visualisation’, designed to stimulate your interest and make the statistics more engaging. We’ve also continued with the Interactive Maps in this year’s report. This provides users with a tool for viewing and analysing many of the datasets included in the report at a very local level.

To find out more please click on the link below to download the report:

Quality of Life in Warwickshire 2013/14 report (6.8 MB)

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