Warwickshire’s population now at 548,729 people

The Office for National Statistics recently released the latest population estimates for all Local Authorities in the UK.  According to the  Mid-2013 population estimates, Warwickshire’s population now stands at an estimated  548,729 people. This represents an increase of 0.14% or 755 people when compared to figures for Mid-2012. This rate of growth is slightly below that experienced nationally (0.63%). However, as the table below indicates, there has been some variation around the county in terms of population change with some areas gaining population while others have experienced a fall in numbers.

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  • Rugby experienced the highest rate of population growth in the last year, roughly in line with the national average. The Borough gained 622 people between 2012 and 2013. This means that  population growth in Rugby accounted for just over 80% of Warwickshire’s population growth as a whole.
  • Nuneaton and Bedworth and Stratford-on-Avon also gained population (around 200 people each) but at rates below the national average.
  • Both North Warwickshire and Warwick District experienced falls in their population.

Population change happens because of a combination of births, deaths and migration (both internal and international) flows. Overall in Warwickshire, natural change (births minus deaths) has been the driving factor in population growth between 2012 and 2013; the county experienced net outflows in its population due to migration. However, there is again variation around the county.

  • Although in North Warwickshire births exceeded deaths in the last year, the population fell because of net out- migration from of the borough.
  • Nuneaton and Bedworth’s growth in population can largely be explained by natural change; births exceeding deaths. It experienced net out-migration between 2012-2013.
  • Rugby, which experienced the highest levels of population growth, did so because of a combination of births exceeding deaths and net in-migration both internal and international.
  • Stratford-on-Avon was the only district to see deaths exceed births, largely due to its older population structure. Population growth here is therefore accounted for by net in-migration.
  • Births exceeded deaths in Warwick District but the population still fell because of net out-migration of residents in the district.

The full Mid-2013 population data set is available from the ONS webpages.  Additionally, a summary of the expected growth in Warwickshire’s population into the future can be found here.

 

Warwickshire’s population projected to increase to 623,900 people by 2037

The primary purpose of the subnational projections is to provide an estimate of the future size and age structure of the population of local authorities in England. The latest 2012-based projections released by the ONS yesterday suggest Warwickshire is projected to be home to 623,900 people by 2037.  This is a 13.9% increase or 75,900 people in the 25 year period, lower than the equivalent national increase of 16.2%.

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How a population is projected to change locally depends on a number of factors that can interact and produce very different growth rates to England as a whole. The size and age structure of the population at mid-2012 is a big indicator of the future population.

Warwickshire’s population as a whole is projected to be more heavily influenced by migration than natural change (births-deaths) into the future and particularly in later years of the projection, internal migration (between local authorities) plays a larger role in influencing the figures.

Some local planning needs are directly relevant to specific age groups and therefore it is important to understand the possible changes to the age structure of an area when planning for the future.

Overall Warwickshire is expected to grow by 13.9% over the 25 year period, however, this mask considerable variation when looking at broad age bands.  The population aged between 0-15 years is expected to grow by 7% in the 25 year period while those aged between 16-64 years is looking at a fall of 0.2%.  Those aged 65 years or over are expected to increase by nearly two thirds (64%) over 25 years and when we consider the population aged 90 years or over, this rises significantly to 269% (over 2 and a half times the current number of 90+ year olds).

Interactive population pyramidsThe ONS projections released yesterday are considerably lower than the previous 2010 and 2011-based projections across the county. This is likely to be due to the fact that the trends used in the 2012-based subnational population projections are based on a historical population series rebased following the 2011 Census while the trends used in the 2011- based subnational population projections are based on an older population series that does not reflect the findings of the 2011 Census. Other reasons include:

  • changes in the population estimate, used as the base year in the projections, between mid-2011 and mid-2012,
  • changes in the trends (births, deaths and migration),
  • changes in assumptions for international migration at a national level

The team will be looking at these estimates in more detail over the coming weeks, however, ONS have produced an interactive tool to look at how the population is changing over time in your area.

To download the data or for more information, visit the ONS webpages.

 

2012 Migration Patterns in Warwickshire

Migration 2012Last year, we presented some key statistics on migration flows in and out of our five districts (see the last post here).  New data, for 2012, has now been published so we have updated our analysis.

As you might expect, in the course of a year there have not been significant changes in the underlying pattern of population flows.  Warwickshire continues to be a net importer of population from elsewhere in England & Wales, albeit to a lesser extent than previous years.  In 2011/12, 26,000 people moving into Warwickshire.  This was nearly matched with 25,800 residents leaving the county during the same period.  This means we gained around 200 residents over the course of the year, considerably smaller than the 3,800 residents gained in the previous year.

Coventry continues to be the main source of people migrating into the county, with 5,150 making that move during 2011/12, higher than the 3,800 people the previous year.  Around one in five people that move into Warwickshire from elsewhere in England & Wales come from Coventry.  The flow is not one way though, with 2,290 moving from Warwickshire to Coventry over the same period.

As with 2010/11, aside from Coventry, the key migration flows are actually within Warwickshire itself. In 2011/12, 4,110 residents of the county moved from one district to another. This trend is particularly apparent between Warwick and Stratford-on-Avon Districts and North Warwickshire and Nuneaton & Bedworth Boroughs. In 2011/12, nearly 1,600 people moved between the two southern districts, and 950 moved between the two northern boroughs. There is very little movement north to south or vice versa.

Migrarion 2012

For more detailed information, use the interactive tool* provided by the Office for National Statistics or contact the Observatory at research@warwickshire.gov.uk.
* please note that the tool will not work in Internet Explorer 7 or earlier versions.