Warwickshire’s population projected to increase to 623,900 people by 2037

The primary purpose of the subnational projections is to provide an estimate of the future size and age structure of the population of local authorities in England. The latest 2012-based projections released by the ONS yesterday suggest Warwickshire is projected to be home to 623,900 people by 2037.  This is a 13.9% increase or 75,900 people in the 25 year period, lower than the equivalent national increase of 16.2%.


How a population is projected to change locally depends on a number of factors that can interact and produce very different growth rates to England as a whole. The size and age structure of the population at mid-2012 is a big indicator of the future population.

Warwickshire’s population as a whole is projected to be more heavily influenced by migration than natural change (births-deaths) into the future and particularly in later years of the projection, internal migration (between local authorities) plays a larger role in influencing the figures.

Some local planning needs are directly relevant to specific age groups and therefore it is important to understand the possible changes to the age structure of an area when planning for the future.

Overall Warwickshire is expected to grow by 13.9% over the 25 year period, however, this mask considerable variation when looking at broad age bands.  The population aged between 0-15 years is expected to grow by 7% in the 25 year period while those aged between 16-64 years is looking at a fall of 0.2%.  Those aged 65 years or over are expected to increase by nearly two thirds (64%) over 25 years and when we consider the population aged 90 years or over, this rises significantly to 269% (over 2 and a half times the current number of 90+ year olds).

Interactive population pyramidsThe ONS projections released yesterday are considerably lower than the previous 2010 and 2011-based projections across the county. This is likely to be due to the fact that the trends used in the 2012-based subnational population projections are based on a historical population series rebased following the 2011 Census while the trends used in the 2011- based subnational population projections are based on an older population series that does not reflect the findings of the 2011 Census. Other reasons include:

  • changes in the population estimate, used as the base year in the projections, between mid-2011 and mid-2012,
  • changes in the trends (births, deaths and migration),
  • changes in assumptions for international migration at a national level

The team will be looking at these estimates in more detail over the coming weeks, however, ONS have produced an interactive tool to look at how the population is changing over time in your area.

To download the data or for more information, visit the ONS webpages.


Crime, Recovery and Treatment

It has been suggested that drug users are more likely than non-users to commit criminal offences.

Research studies have found that acquisitive crime such as stealing is commonly linked to offenders of these crime types testing positive for drug use. Treatment for drug using offenders has been measured using a Value For Money (VFM) tool, which demonstrates that crime falls and health improves when people are in drug treatment.

A report has been produced, focusing on drug related criminal activities across Warwickshire for 2012/13. A link to this report can be found below.

Crime, Recovery & Treatment in Warwickshire 2012-13

Warwickshire Ranks 6th in the Top 10 Places to live in the UK in a new Quality of Life Index from USwitch

USwitch have released a new Quality of Life Index which has rev10-Best-places-to-live-in-the-UK1ealed that Warwickshire ranks 6th in the Top 10 best places to live in the UK.

The study assessed 138 local areas for 24 different factors including salaries, disposable household income and the cost of essential goods, such as fuel, food and energy bills. Lifestyle factors such as working hours, life expectancy and hours of sunshine, were also included to provide a complete picture of the quality of life in each region.

While Solihull comes out on top, the bottom of the index is dominated by Scottish regions with East and North Ayrshire ranked as the worst place to live in the UK, with low income, poor exam results and low life expectancy.

The analysis has sparked some interesting comments on USwitch’s website. See below for the full article:

Quality of Life Index

Release of 2011 Conception Statistics

pregnancyThe Office for National Statistics (ONS) released the 2011 conception statistics for England and Wales this week. The findings are positive, with the figures indicating that the national teenage conception rate is falling. The following headlines summarise the report:

  • The under 18 conception rate for 2011 is the lowest since 1969 at 30.9 conceptions per thousand women aged 15–17.
  • The estimated number of conceptions to women aged under 18 also fell to 31,051 in 2011 compared with 34,633 in 2010, a decrease of 10%.
  • The estimated number of conceptions to girls aged under 16 was 5,991 in 2011, compared with 6,674 in 2010 (a fall of 10%).
  • In 2011 there were an estimated 909,109 conceptions, compared with 909,245 in 2010, a decrease of less than 0.1%.
  • Conception rates in 2011 increased for women aged 30 years and over, stayed the same for women aged 25–29 and decreased for women aged under 25 years.

The picture in Warwickshire

In Warwickshire, the conception rate per 1,000 women has remained lower than both the national and regional averages since 2009. The percentage of all conceptions leading to abortion has remained comparable with the national figure for the same time period, but has been consistently lower than the regional figure.

The under 18 conception rate for Warwickshire remains similar to the national average, and the rate for 2011 is the lowest on record at 30.9 conceptions per 1,000 of the under 18 female population. However, there is inequality within the county, with the rate for 2011 ranging from 24.3 in Rugby to 43.2 in Nuneaton and Bedworth.

The percentage of under 18 conceptions leading to abortion remains marginally higher than the national percentage, at 51.2%, compared with 49.3%. Again, there is inequality within the county on this figure, with the highest proportion being in Warwick (56.5%) and the lowest in North Warwickshire (43.8%).

There is variation on under 16 conception statistics within Warwickshire. Whilst the national rate is 6.7 conceptions per 1,000 of the under 16 female population, the rate is highest in Nuneaton and Bedworth, with 10.6 conceptions. The lowest rate is seen in Stratford, with 3.4 conceptions per 1,000.

The full report can be downloaded here.

Release of ONS Excess Winter Mortality in England & Wales statistics

On the 29th of November 2012, the Office for National Statistics released Excess Winter Mortality in England and Wales. The statistical bulletin contains excess winter death final data for the year 2010/11 as well as provisional data for 2011/12. The bulletin also contains breakdowns by sex, age, region and cause of death, alongside figures on temperature and influenza incidence (in order to provide context to the mortality figures).  Historical trends from 1950/51 onward are also presented for comparison.

Key Findings for England and Wales

  • There were an estimated 24,000 excess winter deaths in England and Wales in 2011/12 – an 8 percent reduction compared with the previous winter.
  • As in previous years there were more excess winter deaths in females than in males in 2011/12.
  • Between 2010/11 and 2011/12 male excess winter deaths decreased from 11,270 to 10,700, and female deaths from 14,810 to 13,300.
  • The majority of deaths occurred among those aged 75 and over; there were 19,500 excess winter deaths in this age group in 2011/12 compared with 4,500 in the under 75-year-olds.
  • The excess winter mortality index was highest in London in 2011/12, whereas in 2010/11 it was highest in Wales. Wales had one of the lowest levels of excess winter mortality last winter, second only to the North East of England.

Excess Winter Deaths 2011-12


Unusually deaths peaked in February 2012, whereas normally the highest mortality is seen in January (see graph).  There was a period from 12 February to 2 March when daily deaths exceeded the five year average by more than 70 deaths per day.  This higher mortality is likely to be related to increased influenza, as this peak in deaths coincided with the peak in influenza-like illness rate and in addition to this February was the coldest winter month.

Local Authority level statistics

For the first time this year, figures for Excess Winter Mortality (EWM) are available at Local Authority level for final data (2010/11).  However, due to such small numbers at this level, there are random fluctuations meaning that EWM figures at local authority level are quite variable from one year to the next. As there is no consistent pattern, limited analysis can be performed.  Averaging the five Local Authorities in Warwickshire does reveal a pattern which largely reflects the regional and national trend, but still the trend is more varied due to the smaller figures.

Further information on Excess Winter Mortality in England and Wales is available on the Office for National Statistics website.

The West Midlands Public Health Observatory is expected to release an Excess Winter Death Instant Atlas tool update in December. The tool is currently available at a regional level for the years 2006-2009 and can be accessed from the following link: Excess Winter Deaths in England Atlas.

Vital Statistics

The Office for National Statistics publishes vital statistics which includes data on births, deaths and fertility trends on an annual basis at local authority level.

The Observatory has produced a briefing note on the latest 2011 Vital Statistics for Warwickshire:

Briefing Note – Vital Statistics

In Warwickshire in 2011, there were 6,273 live births, 3,198 boys (51%) and 3,075 girls (49%).  Over a quarter of the County’s live births (26%) were in Nuneaton and Bedworth Borough while North Warwickshire accounted for the lowest volume of live births with just over 10% (or 651 live births) in the County.

In 2011 the total fertility rate (TFR) in Warwickshire was 1.89 children per woman. This differs quite considerably when looking at the District and Borough rates.

The TFR for all Districts and Boroughs in the County have risen over the ten year period from 2001 to 2011 mirroring the national trend.

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Warwickshire’s unemployment falls for September, mirroring national trend

Warwickshire’s unemployment figures have fallen in September 2012 to 7,903 Job Seekers’ Allowance Claimants in the County; a rate of 2.3% of the resident working age population and 2.9% of the economically active population. This represents a fall of 164 claimants or 2% from the previous month, mirroring the national trend.

Although Warwickshire has seen a considerable fall in claimants over the past month, this is not uniform across the Districts/Boroughs.  Rugby saw a fall of 5.7% (or 83 claimants) from August to September 2012 compared to Nuneaton and Bedworth and Stratford-on-Avon which both remained static from the previous month (0%).

The broader ILO definition of unemployment for the UK for the three months to August 2012 was 7.9%. The rate was down 0.2 percentage points on the previous quarter.

Warwickshire’s unemployment figures are presented in the briefing below:

Unemployment Update – September 2012